I noticed that gold stabilized above the $5,150 level at the end of February, mainly due to U.S. bond yields falling to their lowest levels in three months. This move reduced the opportunity cost of holding the yellow metal, especially with real yields declining after accounting for inflation.

The spot price reached $5,192, up 0.1%, and April futures moved at $5,209. Gold is heading toward its seventh consecutive monthly gain, with an increase of over 6% during the month. However, the strength of the dollar this month limits the rally, especially with expectations of a more hawkish monetary policy if U.S. economic data remains strong.

From a technical perspective, gold is moving within a clear organized upward trend of a monthly cycle. Breaking the $5,050 level was a real turning point—shifting from defense to offense. The MACD shows a golden crossover above the zero line, and the RSI is trading between 60-65 without overbought conditions. This indicates additional technical room for upward movement before profit-taking pressures.

Levels I am watching: 5,200 as a critical psychological resistance, then 5,350 and 5,500 as bullish targets. On the support side: 5,080, 4,950, and 4,800 dollars. As long as the price remains above 5,080, the positive scenario remains dominant.

Regarding the nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran in Geneva—partial progress has been made but no final agreement has been reached. This temporarily reduced the geopolitical risk premium, but anticipation remains. On the Asian demand side, discounts in India have widened to their highest in 10 months amid reduced buying, while Chinese demand has resumed after the Lunar New Year.

Markets are pricing in three rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, but U.S. labor market data shows relative stability, with jobless claims remaining steady. This divergence between market expectations and the Federal Reserve’s potential stance creates a tug-of-war that supports gold on one hand and challenges it on the other.

J.P. Morgan analysts expect a test of the $5,250–$5,450 range during Q2, with a long-term target near $6,400 by the end of 2026. UBS links the rally to confirmed rate cuts, suggesting a possible rise to $6,000–$6,200 in the medium term. However, Goldman Sachs warns that a bullish surprise in inflation could prompt the Fed to tighten, potentially leading to a correction toward $4,850–$4,950.