Gold is falling sharply this week, and prices are under intense pressure. I noticed that the price dropped to around $4,571 on the hourly chart, reflecting a strong sell-off wave after breaking the $4,600 support level. Technical analysis suggests that gold has entered a genuine oversold zone, with the RSI near 28, but this does not mean a quick rebound—the downtrend is still dominant.

What is weighing on gold now comes down to three key factors: first, U.S. bond yields have risen to their highest levels in about a year, making holding gold extremely costly. Second, markets have essentially priced out any chance of a U.S. interest rate cut during 2026—there are even bets on further increases. Third, oil prices are above $106 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions, which heightens fears of higher inflation.

Regarding the technical analysis of gold prices, the $4,600 level has now become resistance after previously acting as support. If the price wants to restore balance, it would need to break through $4,700 and then $4,800—which seems highly unlikely in the current period. On the other hand, the first real support level is $4,500, and we may see a test of $4,450 if pressures continue.

Major financial institutions have differing expectations. Some expect a short-term range of $4,480–$4,650, while others are more cautious and anticipate a test of $4,450–$4,500 before any rebound. The difference is that some take into account precautionary demand amid the geopolitical crisis, while others believe that higher interest rates and a strong dollar outweigh any safe-haven demand.

The MACD indicator is sending very clear bearish signals, and selling momentum is strong. Honestly, the bearish scenario is the most likely in the short term. But if we see weak U.S. economic data or a decline in bond yields, we could see a quick corrective rebound from the $4,500–$4,530 area.

Upcoming key events: U.S. industrial production data, statements from Federal Reserve members, and the CFTC trader commitments report—each of these could move the market strongly. Right now, markets are extremely sensitive to any new economic data.