Just now! Starship manages to pass the test despite being damaged, and Musk’s trillion-dollar IPO faces its key battle: is it still not too late for retail investors to get on board now?

Bro, you've been staring at the candlestick chart all day, thinking $BTC $ETH is half-dead. But Wall Street folks aren't paying attention to the exchange; they're watching a rocket in the Texas desert.

On May 22nd, SpaceX's Starship had its 12th test flight, debuting the V3 version. The result? Mixed feelings. Successful deployment of simulated satellites, controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean; but the heavy booster failed to recover, crashing into the Gulf of Mexico.

In the eyes of ordinary people, this is called a failure. But in the words of analysts, it's called a "lukewarm success." The original term is "Lukewarm success."

Why? Because it's been exactly 7 months since the last test. SpaceX has been silent for 7 months. If they can't even complete a launch before the IPO roadshow, investor skepticism could drown Elon Musk. But now, at least it proves the spacecraft is heading in the right direction.

SmartTech Research CEO Mark Vena said plainly: SpaceX doesn't need this to be perfect; they need to demonstrate positive progress with the upgraded system. Investors see that.

Here's another number—SpaceX's IPO roadshow is scheduled for June 4th, with a fundraising target of up to $80 billion. This would set a record for the largest IPO in history. Starship is at the core of the entire story.

Here's the logic: if Starship can achieve full reusability, launch costs will plummet dramatically. Then SpaceX can expand Starlink satellite internet (currently the company's cash cow), develop orbital AI data centers, and even carry humans to the Moon and Mars. This isn't just a rocket company; it's a future AI infrastructure provider.

The market has already responded. Redwire's stock soared 26% in a single day, Firefly rose 19% after securing a NASA contract. Bank of America space ETF stocks surged 61% this year, Procure Space ETF nearly 69%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 only gained 9.8%.

But don't rush to go all-in. Canaccord Genuity's Austin Moeller pointed out a key point: SpaceX still needs to demonstrate successful launches, payload deployments, orbit insertions, and controlled landings of both boosters and spacecraft. Only by achieving these can the system be scaled up to build the so-called "super constellation."

And this test? The booster didn't catch it. The tail risk has indeed decreased—at least it didn't fall into the "repair-failure" death spiral—but execution risk remains. SpaceX itself wrote in the IPO filing: development delays could increase costs and hinder the deployment pace of AI infrastructure.

Antoine Grenier from Analysys Mason added an interesting perspective: total success might actually be a bad thing, as it could trigger overly enthusiastic market sentiment before the IPO. This "wounded but passing" state is actually the best.

So, you see, it's like a card game. The dealer, Musk, played a card that's neither big nor small—no big bang, but no fold either. The market is willing to call because the macro narrative is strong enough—the imagination of AI infrastructure is enough to make Wall Street overlook a booster recovery flaw.

For retail investors, how do we evaluate this? If you believe space computing will be the next internet-level track in the next decade, the SpaceX IPO is a rare opportunity for early-stage shares. But don't expect it to double overnight. Starship still has a long way to go before stable, economical operation.

Let's look at the data: Starship development has already burned through $15 billion. When is the next test? No one knows. Will the booster be able to recover stably and quickly in subsequent flights? That will be the core metric analysts will question during the IPO roadshow.

Remember, every first recovery of a rocket is like the first pledge of a crypto contract—the hardest part is always the next one.

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