I have recently noticed that everyone is asking about one topic: will the price of gold rise in the coming months? And the truth is, this question is entirely logical, especially after what we have witnessed this year.

Gold made a crazy run in January. It jumped rapidly to levels we didn't expect, reaching close to $5,600 per ounce, a historic level we have never seen before. Everyone was optimistic, but things didn't continue the same way. In March, gold entered a very severe correction wave, losing about 12% in one month, its worst monthly performance since 2008. Now in April, it’s moving around $4,700-$4,800, and there’s an open question: will there be a new peak or have we finished the rally?

History gives us some clues. The year 2025 was a standout year for gold. It started around $3,000 and ended with gains close to 70%. There was huge demand from central banks and investors, the dollar was weak, and geopolitical risks were high. All of this pushed prices higher continuously.

Now, will the price of gold rise from here? Major financial institutions seem relatively optimistic. JPMorgan expects gold to reach $6,300 by the end of 2026. UBS raised its forecast to $6,200, with a possibility of rising to $7,200 if geopolitical situations worsen. Deutsche Bank predicts $6,000. Even BNP Paribas raised its forecast to an average of $5,620. The general consensus is that gold still has upward momentum.

But there are complications. The dollar has started to strengthen, bond yields are rising, and the Federal Reserve might consider raising interest rates again if inflation returns. Inflation itself has started to reappear, reaching 3.3% in March after being 2.4% in February. This means price pressures are resurfacing.

What’s interesting is that the market has become very sensitive to any news. Geopolitical tensions, central bank decisions, inflation data—all of these quickly impact prices. Gold is no longer just a simple safe haven; it has become a complex market reacting to everything.

Practically speaking, if you’re thinking of entering now, you need to understand that there are different options. You can buy physical bars, but there are storage and insurance costs. Or you can use contracts for difference (CFDs) if you want more flexibility and the ability to speculate on short-term movements. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also a reasonable middle ground.

The truth is, whether gold will rise depends heavily on factors outside of control. If geopolitical tensions persist, the probability is high. If the dollar weakens again, that will help. If central banks resume buying strongly, it will push prices higher. But if peace negotiations progress or the Fed tightens policy, we might see downward pressure.

Personally, I believe gold will remain strong, but not at the same pace as in January. Likely, we will see gradual rises with periods of consolidation. The $5,000 level now seems psychologically important, and if it’s broken steadily, we might see tests of higher levels. But the path isn’t straight, and volatility could be intense.

The key is to have a clear plan before acting. Are you buying to preserve your wealth long-term? Or are you trading on daily movements? Each requires a different strategy and risk management. And most importantly, don’t let emotions drive your investment decisions. Numbers and analysis should guide you.