Recently, looking at the options market has been a bit emotional: the buyer's biggest fear isn't wrong direction, but time quietly bleeding away; as for the seller, basically collecting rent every day, but also bearing the shadow of “what if a big spike comes.” Many people focus on high or low IV, but in fact, emotions are all reflected in the time value—who is actually being eaten away.

Looking again at the on-chain set of re-pledging/shared security/compound yields, it's no surprise that it's called “nesting dolls,” fundamentally it's also about discounting the certainty of the future, stacking more and more like borrowing money from time. Anyway, I now prefer to watch how funds move, who is secretly adding or reducing positions… I no longer chase explanations, I accept randomness. Just like that for now.