I've been monitoring gold movements these days, and the topic really deserves attention. The year started with crazy strength - reaching close to $5600 in January, but then it entered a sharp correction in March, and now it’s moving around $4700-$4800. The question everyone asks: Is gold truly on the rise or falling?

According to the latest Reuters survey of 30 analysts, the average expected price of gold in 2026 has reached $4,746 per ounce - the highest annual average since 2012. But opinions vary greatly. JPMorgan sees it reaching $6,300, while UBS has raised its target to $6,200 with a bullish scenario that could reach $7,200 if geopolitical situations worsen. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley sees $4,600 as the baseline scenario.

The truth is, gold doesn’t move based on a single factor. Inflation, for example - we saw a jump from 2.4% in February to 3.3% in March, which supports demand for gold as a hedge against loss of value. The strength of the US dollar puts pressure on it from the other side, central banks are buying heavily, and geopolitical tensions increase demand for safe havens.

What I’ve noticed is that the market has become very sensitive - any economic statement or political development moves the price sharply. Gold is no longer just a traditional safe haven, but has become a sensitive tool reflecting all fluctuations in US interest rates, the dollar, and global conditions.

If you’re thinking of entering, it’s important to set your goals first. Are you looking for long-term protection against inflation? Or do you want to speculate on short-term volatility? There are many options - from gold bars and coins to exchange-traded funds or even CFDs if you’re experienced.

Personally, what matters to me is that gold still maintains its position as a reliable tool for preserving wealth. Despite the decline from January’s highs, prices are still at historically high levels. Major banks have not retracted their positive outlooks, and the main drivers - geopolitical uncertainty and hedging demand - are still present. The key is to watch US economic data and interest rate decisions, as they have the greatest impact on gold’s upcoming trend.