#Polymarket每日热点

🐳 The Whale's Dilemma: Floating Losses Adding Positions, Passively Averaging Down

Loracle initially shorted at an average price of about $41. As HYPE surged to $64, its floating loss exceeded $30 million. To avoid being liquidated, it could only keep adding margin and rolling over positions, which is essentially "passive averaging down" rather than active attack. Currently, the massive $140 million short position has become a market signal—everyone knows there is a huge liquidation zone above $65.

🎯 Impact on the Price: Short-term Short Squeeze, Medium-term Reversal Warning

Short-term (next 3-5 days): The market is most eager to "whale hunt." Since the short whale has placed a massive sell order at $64, the bulls are very likely to push the price higher, enticing more follow-up buying, pushing the price toward the $65-70 range, attempting to break through Loracle’s liquidation line. Therefore, HYPE is likely to continue rising before the end of May, triggering a rapid short squeeze.

But medium-term risks are accumulating: once this whale is completely liquidated (or actively closed out), the biggest fuel will be exhausted. Major funds will use the liquidity from the liquidation to distribute at high levels, and then the price may fall quickly.

📅 Price Outlook at the End of May

Considering the whale game and the inflow of spot ETF funds and other fundamentals, I believe HYPE’s price by the end of May will hit the $68-72 range, possibly briefly touching $75. But after the surge, be alert for a sharp pullback; the closing price at the end of the month may not stay above $70.

For ordinary investors: it’s not advisable to heavily chase longs now, nor to short against the trend. The best strategy is to gradually take profits or set a trailing stop-loss, ensuring profits are safely secured in this "whale hunting game."