Gold is currently trading near $4,560 per ounce, and in my view there are several factors that will influence its direction over the coming days. First, oil prices fell by more than 2% after Washington announced the suspension of a military strike aimed at Iran, which temporarily eased inflationary pressures on the markets. The key point is that this decline in oil helped gold stabilize after a run of consecutive losses.

But the truth is that the real pressure is coming from elsewhere—higher U.S. yields and a strong dollar keep gold under continuous pressure. With the appointment of Kevin Worch as head of the Federal, markets expect a prolonged period of tight monetary policy, which increases the cost of holding gold. Gold price forecasts from major banks are mixed: UBS believes the metal could trade within a range of $4,480–$4,620, while Deutsche Bank is more pessimistic and expects a test of $4,420–$4,450 if yields remain high.

From a technical standpoint, gold has started gradually losing its downward momentum, and the RSI has exited the oversold zone, but the indicators do not yet point to a clear reversal. The market is currently in a temporary balance between pressure and support. If the price fails to stabilize above $4,550, we may see tests at $4,500 and $4,450. Gold price expectations depend heavily on what happens with Canadian inflation data and U.S. housing data—especially since any strong figures could support the view that the U.S. economy can withstand higher interest rates.

The geopolitical landscape remains a concern, but the temporary calm in the escalation between Washington and Tehran reduces precautionary demand for gold. In my view, gold will remain confined between these pressures and supports over the coming weeks, and the real move will depend on developments in U.S. interest rates and economic data.