Many people now only focus on Trump's humor, blunders, and the dramatic narrative of the US-Iran conflict, forgetting a fundamental fact:


The United States remains the most powerful and far ahead country on this planet.
The essence of the US-Iran conflict is not whether the US can defeat Iran, but whether the US still needs to pay strategic costs for a significantly weakened adversary.
Iran has been severely wounded and disabled; the US is just dust on its sleeve. But if the US continues to personally handle the aftermath, it’s not just a matter of a slightly dirty sleeve, but a re-entry into the Middle Eastern quagmire.
For the US, the marginal gains from escalating the conflict are almost zero, while the marginal costs could rapidly escalate.
Therefore, if the US and Iran ultimately reach an agreement that doesn’t seem tough, or even makes the market think “the US has made concessions,” I wouldn’t be surprised at all.
The only surprises would be those who see war as a soap opera but don’t understand that behind national actions are always costs, benefits, and strategic priorities.
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
No comments
  • Pinned