A single statement from Trump caused oil prices to crash and crypto to surge, with 110k people getting liquidated

An epic drop of 17.8 million barrels in inventory—more absurd than a joke, in front of a single presidential remark.

The “boy who cried wolf” play, played so many times, eventually one time will be real

The US and Iran have been fighting for 86 days. The Strait of Hormuz is held hostage by Iran, 20% of global oil transportation is blocked, oil prices keep bouncing above $100, markets spinning wildly.

And Trump, in the past two months, has at least seven or eight times hinted that “an agreement is imminent.”

Each time—oil prices plummet—then two days later, rumors are denied—V-shaped rebound. Short positions get wiped out, long positions also get liquidated, a double-sided slaughter, retail traders crying out loud.

Until early this morning.

On May 23, Eastern Time, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US-Iran deal was “basically agreed.” Soon after, The New York Times confirmed Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU). The core points: end all front-line fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and unfreeze $25 billion of Iranian assets.

At this moment, the market exploded.

The naked power game behind oil prices

When commodities become highly politicized, candlestick charts are no longer supply and demand, but a voting machine of fear and greed.

What happened that night on May 20?

The US Energy Information Administration released data: last week, US crude oil inventories plummeted by a record 17.8 million barrels—biggest weekly drop ever, Cushing inventories nearly bottomed out, exports hit all-time high. Any veteran trader seeing these numbers would think only one word: short squeeze. Brent crude spiked to $107 intraday, shorts trembling.

But Trump casually said “negotiations are in the final stage”—

Brent crude crashed 7% straight down, WTI tumbled below $97. The epic 17.8 million barrel inventory drop, in front of a single presidential remark, is more absurd than a joke.

The true soul of the oil market is no longer fundamentals. It’s the Strait of Hormuz. And the valve of that strait is now in negotiations.

But that’s just the warm-up.

Early this morning, Trump officially announced the deal was “basically agreed,” Bitcoin shot from $74,000 to $76,600. In the past hour, the entire network saw $103 million liquidated, nearly $90 million of shorts wiped out, over 110k people lost everything.

Here’s the question—this is not the ending you want

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz, will it be a structural change in the global energy supply chain, or a short-term window reversible under internal Iranian political pressure?

My simple judgment: the latter.

Why?

First, Iran has already started to sabotage. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson quickly rebutted Trump early on the 24th—saying Trump’s statement that “the strait will return to normal” is “incomplete.” Iran’s actual words: “Even if an agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be fully managed by Iran. The timing, manner, and permissions for passage remain under Iran’s control.” Trump’s statement is false.

In plain language: I might let you pass, but how, who, and when— I decide. This isn’t “reopening the strait,” it’s “the strait has a toll booth, and the station master is Iran.”

Second, Israel is furious. Netanyahu urgently summoned his team for a meeting overnight, Israeli media directly said the deal’s terms are “very unfavorable to Israel.” Yet Trump told Netanyahu over the phone that “everything is going very smoothly.” Think about it—how big is the crack here?

Third, unfreezing assets is Iran’s real KPI. Iran’s economy is squeezed by sanctions, and the $25 billion frozen assets are the real reason they agreed to negotiations. Once the money arrives, will Iran still be polite?

Remember, Iran’s war is fought over the card of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran can’t withstand US military pressure head-on; its only bargaining chip is control over this 20% of global oil transit. Do you think it will voluntarily give up this card now?

Impossible.

The brutal truth behind the K-line frenzy

Let’s get more painful.

What are crypto folks celebrating? Oil price collapse = inflation expectations cool down = Fed loosens policy = risk assets soar. This logic is correct; it’s the direct driver of crypto surges.

But don’t forget—“agreement is basically reached,” not “signed and sealed.”

Both sides are still arguing over four core issues: uranium enrichment, strait governance, war reparations. Iran has now clearly said: nuclear issues? Don’t rush, we’ll discuss the next phase in 30 or 60 days.

What does this mean? It means the so-called “deal” is just a temporary ceasefire framework + strait passage arrangement, pushing the most sensitive nuclear issues further down the line.

This structural risk remains unresolved. Your celebration is for the temporary peace premium, but you’re betting on the potential for renewed war and catastrophic volatility.

A word of advice to brothers

Trump has turned the oil market into his “diplomatic live broadcast”—a few social media posts can send oil prices soaring or crashing. The liquidations and crypto surges we experienced today are just the appetizer of this new era.

Don’t just focus on tonight’s gains and be foolishly happy.

Iran has already made it clear—the strait is “Iran-controlled,” not “free passage.”

Israel is simmering with anger, ready to intervene at any moment.

The nuclear issue bomb has just been kicked down the road for 30 days.

If the situation repeats, oil could jump from $101 to over $108 in an instant, and what will happen to crypto short covering then?

Next time you see oil prices flash crash or crypto surge wildly, don’t rush to add positions. First, check the news—see what the White House just said. That’s the real engine behind the market.

The market is no longer a battlefield for candlestick analysts; it’s a diplomatic live broadcast where one sentence can determine life or death.

How much is that sentence worth?

Today, 110k people have already paid the tuition for you.