ETH 15-minute short-term surge of 2.57%: Institutional capital allocation and macro easing expectations resonate to drive the rise

On May 23, 2026, from 20:30 to 20:45 (UTC), ETH experienced a rapid upward movement within 15 minutes, with a return of +2.57%, a price range of 2076.33 to 2132.32 USDT, and an amplitude of 2.70%, indicating a significant increase in market volatility.

The main driver of this fluctuation was the reallocation of institutional funds. Under the expectation of a loosening cycle by the Federal Reserve, the ETH staking yield gap with U.S. Treasury yields narrowed, attracting some institutional capital into ETH spot ETFs, creating phased buying pressure. As of 2026, the ETH spot ETF manages approximately $18 billion in assets, and ETF capital flows have a significant impact on the price.

Additionally, on-chain activity remained high while circulating supply contracted, producing a resonant effect. On May 22, ETH's daily trading volume reached 2,311,000 transactions, a year-over-year increase of 66.02%, indicating overall network activity; the staking ratio of about 28.5% constricted the circulating supply, limiting the amount of tradable ETH in the short term and amplifying the marginal impact of capital inflows on the price. At the same time, no abnormal large transfers or concentrated liquidation events were observed on-chain, ruling out single-event-driven movements, and indicating a market behavior driven by multiple factors resonating together.

Short-term volatility risks should be monitored. If macro liquidity tightens or market sentiment weakens, ETF capital outflows could accelerate price corrections; high leverage involvement may trigger sharp short-term fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to ETF capital flows, changes in staking ratios, and macro news developments.