A Black Swan on Friday has finally arrived—late, but it’s here. The downside room below is far deeper than you can see. Jing Yi’s trend layout for next week.

1. Macro picture (decides the overall direction)
Fed policy expectations remain hawkish: after the new chair took office, market concerns about rate hikes intensified, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and Treasury yields stayed elevated—directly suppressing crypto asset valuations. Next week, focus on remarks from Fed officials and U.S. inflation data; any interest-rate-hike-leaning statements will further amplify market volatility.

2. Geopolitical risk interruptions: The situation in the Middle East still carries uncertainty. Risk-averse sentiment keeps swinging back and forth, hitting high-risk assets more clearly—especially highly volatile products like ETH.

3. The daily chart (daily K-line) breakdown signal is clear. With macro-level headwinds dominating, price breaks lower on the technicals, and capital continuing to flow out, BTC and ETH’s short-term trend is bearish. Don’t blindly buy the dip.

BTC: Watch support at 72,000-74,000; if that level breaks, price may test around 70,000. Resistance sits at 77,500-78,000.

ETH: Watch support at 1,950-2,000; if it breaks, ETH may test 1,800. Resistance sits at 2,150-2,200.

If good news emerges—such as the Fed unexpectedly releasing signals of rate cuts, or easing tensions in the Middle East—then the market could see a violent rebound. However, that scenario is unlikely to be sustained in the short term; any rebound is an opportunity for taking a high-short setup.

Personal opinion—for reference only #TradFi交易分享挑战