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When my hands start itching to chase the rally, I recently force myself to stop for 10 minutes and ask: Am I adding to my position because I really have more information, or am I being pushed by emotion? To put it plainly, once I see the candlesticks climbing one after another and the chat group’s mood heats up, my mind automatically starts making up stories—things like, “This time is different”… But when I look back, many times I haven’t actually added any verifiable new information.
In the past couple of days, I’ve also been comparing RWA, U.S. Treasury yields, and on-chain yield products—right there side by side. I can get hooked by that kind of narrative that “looks more stable,” but whether something is truly stable is a different matter from my impulse to add to my position right now. Anyway, my current clumsy rule is: if I can’t explain clearly where the risk is coming from or where my exit point is, then it’s emotion pushing my position—not information. That’s where I stand for now.