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I noticed that many traders still do not understand how the market really works. They think that classic technical analysis with its patterns and indicators is a magic wand, but the reality is quite different. That’s why the concept of smart money is so important for understanding the true nature of price movements.
The point is that there are two categories of participants in the market: large players (whales, big banks, hedge funds, institutional investors) and the crowd of small traders. Large capital always acts against the expectations of the majority, playing on emotions and FOMO. This is exactly where the concept of smart money comes in, explaining how whales manipulate liquidity and price in their favor.
Why doesn’t classic TA work? Because small participants see a beautiful triangle or a breakout of a level and think it’s a signal. But a big player knows this perfectly well. They intentionally draw these formations, knowing that the crowd will believe in them, and then break them in a completely illogical direction. They take out the stops of the hamsters, gather liquidity, and move on. That’s classic. That’s why 95% of small traders lose their deposits.
Now let’s understand market structures. The market moves in three modes: an uptrend (new highs and lows are rising), a downtrend (highs are falling, lows are made lower), and sideways movement, when the price fluctuates within a range without a clear direction. Defining the current structure is the foundation of all analysis.
In sideways markets, whales often accumulate positions. They need huge liquidity to fill their orders, so they hunt for small participants’ stops. When the price breaks out of the range (called a deviation), it often signals an imminent return back. Entries can be made on the first attempts to return to the sideways range with a tight stop behind the wick.
SWING is a structural reversal point. Swing high is a candle with the highest high and two neighboring candles with lower highs. Swing low is the opposite. It’s at these points that whales gather stops and liquidity.
What is a Break Of Structure? It’s when the trend is broken. In an uptrend, it’s a new high; in a downtrend, it’s a new low. Change of Character (CoC) is a change in the trend’s direction itself. The first BOS after a trend reversal is called a Confirm and confirms the new trend. It’s very important to trade with the trend, descending from higher timeframes to lower ones. If all conditions align on each TF, then we act.
Liquidity is fuel for the big player. In practice, it’s the stops of small participants located beyond obvious levels, outside of pattern boundaries, behind candle shadows. Whales fill these stops and build their positions. The largest clusters of stops are found beyond significant highs and lows. These are liquidity pools that large players hunt.
SFP (Swing Failure Pattern) occurs at equal highs or lows. The whale needs to take out stops, so it breaks previous highs and lows through the candle’s shadow, but then the price returns back. The optimal entry is after the candle closes, with a stop behind its shadow.
WICK is the candle’s shadow that breaks the liquidity zone. Entry here would be at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the wick with a tight stop, offering the most favorable risk-reward ratio.
Imbalance occurs due to a mismatch between buying and selling. On the chart, it looks like a long impulsive candle whose body breaks the shadows of neighboring candles. Imbalance acts as a magnet for the price; the market will try to close it. Entry at 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the imbalance.
Orderblock is a place where a large player traded a significant volume. Here, key liquidity manipulation occurs. A whale might even open a short-term losing position to create a false move. In the future, order blocks serve as support and resistance, acting as magnets for the price. The optimal entry is on retest of the order block or at 0.5 Fibonacci of the candle’s body with a stop behind the shadow.
Divergence is a discrepancy between price movement and an indicator. Bullish divergence: price lows decrease, but the indicator rises, signaling a reversal upward. Bearish divergence is the opposite. The older the timeframe, the stronger the signal. On lower timeframes, divergences are often broken. Triple divergence is a very strong setup.
Volumes show participant interest. Rising volumes indicate trend strength, falling volumes indicate weakness. In a bullish trend, buying volumes increase; in a bearish trend, selling volumes increase. If the price rises but volumes decrease, it may signal an upcoming reversal.
Three Drives Pattern is a reversal pattern with a series of higher highs or lower lows. It forms near support or resistance zones. Bullish TDP is a series of lower lows, entering the support zone or after the third low. Bearish is a series of higher highs, entering the resistance zone.
Three Tap Setup differs from TDP in that the third low or high does not form. It’s accumulation by a large player. Entry on the second move or third retest of the support or resistance zone.
Trading sessions are Asian (03:00-11:00), European London (09:00-17:00), and American New York (16:00-24:00) according to Moscow time. During the day, there are three cycles: accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. Usually, accumulation occurs in Asia, manipulation in Europe, and distribution in America.
CME trades from Monday to Friday. In summer, trading opens at 01:00 Moscow time and closes at 24:00. On weekends, the exchange is closed, but major crypto exchanges trade 24/7. This can create gaps when prices change significantly over the weekend on major exchanges. Gaps act as magnets for the price, and in 80-90% of cases, they are eventually closed.
Don’t forget about important indices. S&P 500 has a positive correlation with Bitcoin. DXY dollar index has a negative correlation. When DXY rises, crypto usually falls. Ignoring these indices is not advisable; they help understand the situation in the crypto market.
This is the essence of the smart money concept. It helps identify the actions of large players and explains many manipulations. By learning to see these patterns, you can trade alongside whales instead of against them. It’s a completely different level of market understanding. Good luck in trading!