Recent performance in the precious metals market is indeed worth paying attention to. The wave of correction at the end of April left a deep impression; gold directly fell below the $4,600 mark, dropping 2% to $4,555 per ounce, while silver fell more than 3%. Meanwhile, crude oil surged, with WTI breaking through the $100 level, and Brent exceeding $105. This divergence is mainly driven by the situation in the Middle East, with the U.S. imposing a new round of sanctions on Iran and expectations of port blockades pushing up energy costs.

Interestingly, the market's predictions for future gold prices are completely opposite. The World Bank is relatively pessimistic, believing that the speculative frenzy of the past few months has partially subsided, and the upward momentum for gold and silver has significantly slowed. They forecast that the average gold price in 2026 will be around $4,700, then fall back to $4,300 in 2027. But Deutsche Bank's view is much more aggressive, believing that global central banks will continue increasing their gold holdings, and the rally in gold is far from over. They even predict that if emerging market central banks push their gold reserves to 40%, gold could reach $8,000 within the next five years.

This huge divergence reflects the real dilemma in the market regarding gold price trends. On one side are concerns about inflation and expectations of rate hikes; on the other are the support from central banks' continued accumulation. From the perspective of gold price forecasts, the key still depends on how the situation in the Middle East evolves. If the conflict exceeds expectations, crude oil could stay high at $95–$115, supporting precious metals; if it eases quickly, oil prices will fall back, and the upward momentum for precious metals will indeed be limited.

I personally think that at this stage, the gold price trend depends more on the pace of geopolitical developments. In the short term, high energy costs will continue to support prices, but in the long run, it still depends on the global economic fundamentals and central bank policy directions. For investors, now may be the time to observe more cautiously rather than blindly chase higher.