Just整理了一下美元这波行情的逻辑，感觉值得聊一下。

Recently, while looking at the forecast for the dollar's trend, I found some interesting things. The US dollar index fell to around 103.45 since the end of last year, breaking below the 200-day moving average, which is usually a bearish signal. But the reasons behind this are actually quite complex.

Simply put, the dollar exchange rate is the value of a certain currency relative to the US dollar. For example, EUR/USD=1.04 means 1 dollar can exchange for 1.04 euros. The dollar index is a weighted composite of the exchange rates of six major currencies—euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc—against the US dollar.

I noticed that expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have a particularly strong impact on the dollar's movement. When the market expects the Fed to cut rates more frequently, US Treasury yields tend to decline, reducing the attractiveness of the dollar. Last March’s weaker-than-expected employment data increased expectations of rate cuts, putting pressure on the dollar as well.

Looking at historical cycles, the dollar has gone through eight phases. After the gold standard collapsed in the 1970s, the dollar flooded the market, and in the 1980s, Volcker aggressively fought inflation, raising interest rates to 20%, causing the dollar to strengthen significantly. It then experienced shocks from the internet bubble, the financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, in the past two years, the Fed has aggressively raised rates to a 25-year high. While inflation has been contained, confidence in the dollar has been challenged again.

Now, let’s look at the forecast for major currency pairs against the dollar. EUR/USD almost moves inversely to the dollar index; if the Fed continues to cut rates and Europe’s economy improves, the euro could continue to strengthen. The logic for GBP/USD is similar; the Bank of England may cut rates more slowly than the Fed, providing support for the pound. Regarding USD/CNY, if the Fed maintains easing policies, the yuan may face pressure. USD/JPY is expected to trend downward due to Japan’s economic recovery and wage growth pressures. For AUD, Australia’s economic data has been solid, and if the Fed remains dovish, the Australian dollar could follow suit.

As for whether now is a good time to buy dollars, my view is this: in the short term, there are still opportunities for structural volatility. If geopolitical conflicts escalate or US economic data exceeds expectations, the dollar could rebound quickly. But in the medium to long term, as the Fed’s rate-cut cycle deepens, the dollar might weaken gradually, and capital could flow into high-growth emerging markets.

So, the key to dollar trend predictions still depends on the Fed’s policy. Aggressive investors might trade within the 95-100 range of the dollar index, using technical indicators to catch reversal signals. Conservative investors should wait and see, and only act once the Fed’s policy path becomes clearer. In the mid-term, it might be wise to gradually reduce dollar longs and shift toward non-dollar currencies like yen, AUD, or commodities like gold and copper.

Overall, trading the dollar in 2026 will be more data-driven and event-sensitive. To seize opportunities amid exchange rate fluctuations, you need to stay flexible and disciplined, and not be scared by short-term volatility.