Recently, I’ve been paying attention to the RMB exchange rate, and it’s definitely quite interesting. Since last year, the trend of the USD to RMB exchange rate has become very compelling—especially after entering this year, when market sentiment has clearly started to shift.

Looking back, the RMB saw quite a few fluctuations throughout 2025. The first half was really tough. Offshore RMB once fell below 7.40, and the USD to RMB exchange rate even hit a new high not seen since 2015. But in the second half, the situation began to reverse. By the end of November, the RMB appreciated against the U.S. dollar to below 7.08, and the low even reached 7.0765—its strongest performance in nearly a year.

I’ve noticed several driving factors behind this. The easing of China-U.S. trade relations and the warming expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve both provided support for the RMB. Entering 2026, this trend appears to be continuing. Multiple major international banks have changed their tone. Deutsche Bank expects the USD to RMB exchange rate could rise to 6.7 by the end of this year, while Morgan Stanley believes it may reach around 7.05 by year-end. Goldman Sachs is even more aggressive—they believe the RMB appreciation cycle could happen faster than the market expects.

Why do these institutions all look favorably on RMB appreciation? The core logic is very clear: the RMB is currently undervalued relative to its fundamentals, China’s export resilience is strong, and foreign capital is reallocating into RMB assets. On top of that, the U.S. dollar index continues to weaken—these are all medium- to long-term supports.

But there’s one key question we need to clarify: can you make money by buying RMB-related currency pairs now? My view is that you can, but timing is crucial. In the short term, the RMB is expected to remain relatively strong, but the likelihood of rapid appreciation into below 7.0 is actually not very high. So this isn’t an aggressive opportunity; rather, it’s a medium- to long-term plan.

There are many factors that affect the USD to RMB exchange rate. The most direct one is the trend of the U.S. dollar index. In the first five months of 2025, the dollar index dropped 9%, marking the worst year-start ever, which provided direct support for the RMB. China-U.S. trade negotiations are also crucial. Although there are signs of easing recently, this variable still exists. The pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the policy orientation of China’s central bank will all influence where the exchange rate goes.

My own approach is to look at several dimensions. First, focus on how loose or tight China’s monetary policy is. Looser policies usually put downward pressure on the RMB, but if they are paired with fiscal stimulus to stabilize the economy, then in the long run it can actually benefit the RMB. Second, look at economic data. Indicators such as GDP, PMI, and CPI can reflect economic heat, and foreign investors’ willingness to flow in capital will change accordingly. Third, watch the U.S. dollar index and the Federal Reserve’s moves—these are the biggest external variables. Finally, don’t ignore the central bank’s guidance on the exchange rate. Although the RMB midpoint quotation mechanism has a noticeable impact in the short term, the medium- to long-term trend still depends on the overall direction of the market.

From an investment perspective, if you want to participate in RMB appreciation, there are a few routes now. You can open a foreign exchange account through a bank, or you can trade through foreign exchange brokers. Many platforms support both-direction trading and leverage, so you can not only take long positions but also short positions. If you have your own view on the forecast for the USD to RMB exchange rate, you can choose the appropriate position based on your expectations.

Overall, the depreciation cycle for the RMB that started in 2022 may have already come to an end, and a new appreciation track is taking shape. China’s monetary policy being accommodative, the dollar’s structural weakness, and ongoing export resilience—all of these provide medium- to long-term support for the RMB. Of course, there will still be volatility in the short term, especially due to variables such as China-U.S. relations and Federal Reserve policy. But in terms of the bigger picture, the probability of RMB appreciation is higher. Interested investors can build their positions according to their own risk preferences and time horizon—this opportunity is indeed worth paying attention to.