I’ve noticed that in recent weeks there have been many discussions about the path of gold this year, and the question everyone is asking now is: Is a rise in the price of gold actually expected during the rest of 2026?

The truth is, the year began with an unexpected burst of strength. In January, gold surged rapidly to nearly $5,600 per ounce—an historic figure we have never seen before. The momentum was extremely strong, and demand for safe havens was high due to geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar. But as expected with any sharp upswing, a correction followed.

In March, we saw a notable decline—monthly losses of about 11.8%, the worst since October 2008. There was a shift in expectations for U.S. interest rates, dollar strength, and a rise in bond yields. Now in April and in recent weeks, gold has been moving between $4,700 and $4,861—still at historically high levels, but away from January’s peak.

The natural question: Is an increase in the price of gold expected from here? A Reuters poll of 30 analysts showed an average forecast of $4,746 per ounce during 2026— the highest annual average since 2012. This suggests that analysts are still relatively optimistic.

But the picture is more complex. When you look at the forecasts of major institutions, you find a wide divergence. JPMorgan expects $6,300 by year-end. UBS raised its target to $6,200, with a bullish scenario that could reach $7,200 if geopolitical crises worsen. Deutsche Bank expects $6,000. But Goldman Sachs is more cautious—it sets a target around $5,400. Morgan Stanley sees $4,600 as the baseline scenario.

This divergence reflects the reality: gold is now moving with extremely high sensitivity. It no longer serves as a simple traditional safe haven. It is moving in step with inflation, Federal Reserve policies, dollar strength, and global concerns—all at the same time.

In terms of fundamentals, support is there. Central banks continue to buy. Demand for safe havens remains strong. But there are also pressures. If U.S. interest rates stay high or rise further, there will be strong competition from bonds and other assets. A strong dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers.

As for inflation, the latest data showed it jumped to 3.3% in March from 2.4% in February. This means a return to pricing pressure after a period of calm. And this is where gold comes in— in an unstable inflation environment, it becomes protection against a loss of purchasing power.

If you’re asking whether an increase in the price of gold is expected: the answer is maybe yes, but not in a straight line. Most likely, we will see gradual moves with periods of consolidation, rather than sharp jumps like in January. The key drivers are still in place—hedging demand, economic uncertainty, and central bank purchases.

If you want to build a strategy, the key point is this: don’t rely on a single forecast. The market is complex, and gold is extremely sensitive to any sudden change right now. Monitor U.S. inflation data, Federal Reserve decisions, and geopolitical news. These are the real drivers.

Conclusion: Gold may continue to rise, but there is no guarantee. The expected average around $4,700–$5,600 seems reasonable for the year. But success depends on understanding what drives the market, not just on forecasts.