BTC declines as expected, has the rebound ended?
Next, I am more inclined to believe: the final drop of the bear market is unfolding.

Writing Date: 2026-05-18

Core Viewpoint: The probability that the rebound is ending is rising significantly. This round of BTC lifting off from the lows looks more like a technical repair within a bear market rather than the start of a new bull cycle. The most critical risk ahead is not just a simple pullback, but the possibility of retesting—and even breaking below—the prior lows near $60,000, completing the final dip of this bear market.

1. First, the conclusion: this is not a normal pullback—it's the rebound structure getting broken

BTC’s drop this time is not unexpected. During the earlier rebound, the easiest mistake the market could make was to only see the price snap back from the lows, while ignoring the quality of the funds behind the rebound, the continuity of trading activity, and whether the macro environment has truly improved.

My assessment of the current market is:

First, BTC’s rebound has likely already entered its final phase.
Earlier, the price briefly moved back above around $80,000. Sentiment heated up quickly, and many people started discussing “the bull is back.” But a genuinely strong bull reversal typically isn’t driven by short-term short-covering and sentiment repair alone; it requires sustained spot buying, stable ETF net inflows, an improvement in macro risk appetite, and a volume breakout through key resistance levels. At present, these conditions are not all met at the same time.

Second, the current decline looks more like a second confirmation near the end of the bear market.
A major bear market often doesn’t end after just one drop. The first big selloff wipes out chasing capital and high-leverage positions. Then comes a rebound that looks strong and rekindles hope in the market. But the final dip often targets the expectation that “the rebound confirms the bull.” When most people think the bottom has already been confirmed, the market may instead drive downward again and break through the prior lows, creating maximum panic and flushing liquidity.

Third, around $60,000 is not an absolute bottom—it’s the market’s consensus bottom.
The biggest risk of a consensus bottom is this: everyone is watching it. All stop-loss orders, dip-buying, long positions, and leveraged exposure concentrate around that level. If the market truly needs a deep flush, it likely won’t hold precisely at $60,000. More likely, it will punch down through $60,000—possibly even to the $58,000 and $55,000 areas—to sweep liquidity, and only then form a more reliable larger-scale bottom.

2. Why do I say the probability of the rebound ending is increasing?

1. The price has not effectively held above the key resistance area

The most important observation zone in this rebound is around $80,000 to $83,000. This is both the prior rebound resistance area and the line many use to judge whether the bear market has ended early.

If BTC can continuously hold above $83,000 and is accompanied by increased volume, restored ETF net inflows, and strong altcoin correlation, that would indeed indicate that market structure is repairing. But the actual price action is that BTC repeatedly stalls near this critical zone, and then quickly falls back to around $77,000—suggesting that supply and overhead selling pressure remain heavy.

This means: The price isn’t making a healthy breakout and then a normal retest; instead, it fails to break through resistance and turns back down near the resistance.

The difference is significant. The former is a typical bull-market consolidation pattern; the latter is a classic signal that a bear-market rebound is ending.

2. ETF funds shifting from support to pressure

During the earlier BTC rebound, ETF inflows were one of the important drivers. But recently, the funding situation has changed. According to data from Farside Investors, on May 13 the U.S. spot BTC ETF recorded an approximate daily net outflow of $630.4 million, and on May 15 it again saw about a $290.4 million net outflow. In other words, the funds that previously supported the rebound have started to loosen.

This is crucial. Because this round of BTC’s institutional narrative is largely built on the premise that ETFs continuously absorb supply. Once the ETF changes from “steady buying” to “periodic sell pressure,” the market will revert to a state dominated by leverage, sentiment, and macro risk. At that point, price declines become more likely to trigger a chain reaction: ETF outflows pressure prices, price drops trigger leverage liquidations, liquidations create more sell pressure, and ultimately a negative feedback loop forms.

3. Leveraged longs are still too crowded

This selloff came with large-scale liquidations, indicating that during the rebound the market rebuilt a lot of long leverage. The issue is that the real bottom often isn’t when “many people still expect an immediate rebound,” but when “most people no longer dare to go long easily.”

If BTC only drops to around $76,000 and then immediately rallies back, it would suggest buying interest is still strong. But if the subsequent rebound lacks strength and the price pushes further down toward $73,000, $70,000, and $68,000, then it indicates that the current liquidations are not enough—meaning the market may still require a deeper deleveraging cycle.

In simple terms: This decline isn’t just a drop in price; it’s a test of how many people are still willing to take the other side.

3. Why do I think the “final dip” could break below $60,000?

1. $60,000 is a level everyone can clearly see

Previously, BTC dipped near $60,000 and then rebounded quickly, leading many to treat $60,000 as an “iron floor.” But in trading, the more everyone knows about a level, the easier it is for the market to exploit it.

If large amounts of capital place stop-losses below $60,000, and a lot of dip-buying capital waits just above $60,000, then the most likely scenario isn’t a gentle bounce. It’s more likely the market breaks through $60,000 first, triggers stop-losses and panic selling, and then allows capital from even lower levels to step in.

So what’s truly worth worrying about isn’t “dropping to $60,000,” but: after breaking below $60,000, whether the market accelerates further selling.

Once $60,000 is lost, short-term liquidity could be drained quickly, and $58,000, $55,000, and even lower regions may become targets for downward spikes.

2. The last dip in a bear market often looks like a “crash”

Many people think the final dip will provide a comfortable opportunity to board, but in reality the market often does the opposite. The final dip usually comes with several features:

• Positive catalysts start to fail;
• Rebounds get weaker and weaker;
• The pace of decline accelerates;
• Communities shift from “buying the dip” to “doubting the cycle”;
• Altcoins fall much more than BTC;
• Leveraged positions are continuously flushed;
• Most people start not wanting to discuss the market anymore.

If BTC later breaks below $70,000 and then slides toward $60,000, the market will likely bring back discussions like “Has the bull market ended?” “Can BTC come back?” “Did the ETF narrative fail?” Only when it gets to that point will it be closer to the true emotional bottom.

3. Macro risk has not been fully eliminated

BTC now increasingly looks like a high-volatility risk asset rather than a completely independent safe-haven asset. U.S. Treasury yields, dollar liquidity, geopolitical risks, the performance of tech stocks, ETF fund flows—all can affect BTC’s short-term direction.

As long as the macro environment isn’t clearly loosening, and the market’s expectations for rate cuts keep swinging, it’s hard for funds to keep chasing BTC higher. Especially after BTC has already pulled back sharply from highs, institutional capital will be more cautious: they might not immediately clear out completely, but they also won’t keep adding size without confirmation that the trend has turned.

This determines that: To have BTC turn bullish again, it needs continuous inflows; but for BTC to keep falling, it only needs insufficient buying.

4. Next, focus on three scenarios

Scenario 1: Break below $75,000, continue toward $70,000 and $68,000

This is the weakest scenario that needs the most attention in the short term. If BTC shows no clear follow-through and support around $75,000, and the rebound can’t regain levels from $78,000 to $80,000, then the market will likely continue searching for liquidity lower down.

In this phase, focus on two points:

1. Whether the rebound height keeps getting lower;
2. Whether trading activity and liquidations keep expanding during the selloff.

If both conditions appear, it means the bears still control the initiative.

Scenario 2: Drop to around $70,000 for a brief rebound, but the rebound can’t get back above $80,000

This is the most common continuation pattern for the last dip in a bear market. After price drops for a while, a short-term oversold bounce occurs due to short-term overshooting. Many people then shout that “the second dip is successful.” But if the rebound fails to hold back above $80,000—especially if it can’t break through $83,000—then it’s still only a pause within the broader down move.

This scenario is the easiest to lure longs. Because it makes people feel like “it can’t go any lower,” but in reality it only gives room for the next leg down to build momentum.

Scenario 3: Break below $60,000 and complete panic liquidation

This is the main-line risk I believe should not be ignored. If BTC breaks below the prior low near $60,000, the market will likely see a wave of concentrated stop-losses and panic trades. In the short term, it will feel extremely uncomfortable, but in the medium to long term, it could actually be the completion phase of the final dip of this bear market.

A truly major bottom doesn’t necessarily have to appear exactly at the $60,000 round number. It could instead form in the liquidity vacuum after breaking below $60,000—such as around $58,000 or $55,000, and in extreme cases, even deeper.

But note: Breaking below $60,000 isn’t a signal to blindly short; it’s to observe whether panic has been fully released.
If after breaking below, prices quickly reclaim upward and are accompanied by restored ETF inflows, expanded trading activity, and altcoins stopping their catch-up selling, then that could be a better signal of a more reliable bottom.

5. Under what circumstances would my bearish view be invalidated?

Every viewpoint must have invalidation conditions. Right now, there are mainly three conditions that could invalidate the bearish stance:

First, BTC re-establishes a hold above $83,000.
Not just a brief intraday touch, but an effective daily close at that level—and a retest that doesn’t break.

Second, ETF funds resume continuous net inflows.
If ETFs return to becoming a stable buyer again, it suggests institutional demand hasn’t disappeared; the earlier outflows were just short-term disruption.

Third, altcoins and ETH are no longer clearly weaker than BTC.
If the market risk appetite repairs, funds won’t only buy BTC; they will gradually spread to ETH, SOL, and strong altcoins. If altcoins continue setting new lows, it means the market hasn’t truly warmed up yet.

As long as these three conditions don’t all appear simultaneously, I will continue to treat the current market as a second leg down after a bear-market rebound—not the start of a new bull cycle.

6. The three most common trading mistakes

Mistake 1: Treating the rebound as a reversal

The most painful thing in a bear market isn’t the crash—it’s the strong rebound after the crash. Because a strong rebound makes people forget the prior trend, believe the story again, add leverage again, and even fill their positions. When the rebound ends, the market will harvest those positions a second time.

Mistake 2: Treating $60,000 as an absolute bottom

$60,000 is only an important level, not a sacred one. A truly mature trader won’t say, “It’s definitely going to hold here,” but will ask: “If it doesn’t hold here, what do I do?”

Mistake 3: Not setting risk boundaries

Whether going long or short, the most dangerous thing isn’t being wrong on direction—it’s not having a plan. Especially for high-volatility assets like BTC, if you rely only on faith or emotion, you can easily be worn down repeatedly before the final dip.

7. Summary: Has the rebound ended? My answer is—most likely yes, but the real opportunity may be at lower levels

This BTC decline isn’t random, and it can’t be explained by a single candle. What it reflects is: failure to break key resistance levels, weakening ETF inflows, re-liquidation of leveraged longs, and a decline in macro risk appetite.

So I’m more inclined to believe: BTC’s bear-market rebound is close to ending, and may even have already ended. What to truly guard against next is a retest of $60,000 after breaking below $70,000—and possibly a further break below $60,000 to complete the final dip of this bear market.

But on a larger cycle, the final dip isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Because only after the market clears out excessive leverage, excessive optimism, and excessive consensus can the next healthy upward move have a foundation.

Therefore, don’t rush to call “bull is back,” and don’t panic blindly during the selloff. Focus on three key levels:

• Around $75,000: Will it continue to break down on the short term?
• From $70,000 to $68,000: Will there be a continuation rebound?
• Around $60,000: Will it be broken through and trigger the final round of panic?

If BTC truly breaks below $60,000, that’s not the end of the world. In fact, it could be the most seriously worth observing position in this bear market. The biggest opportunities often don’t appear when the market is hottest, but when most people no longer believe the opportunity will return.

Risk Warning: This article is for market analysis and content creation reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are extremely volatile, and contract and leverage risks are especially high. Any action should set risk boundaries in advance.

Data Reference: BTC market data as of May 18, 2026; Farside Investors spot BTC ETF fund flows; recent reports from Reuters and mainstream financial media.