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NVIDIA May 2026 Prediction: The Peak of the Bubble or Just the Beginning?

NVIDIA has become the center of the global AI commerce. With its stock closing around $227 and its market capitalization exceeding $5.5 trillion, the market is now pricing NVIDIA not just as a chip company, but as the infrastructure layer of the AI ​​economy.

Key Drivers

1. AI Infrastructure Spending Still Exploding

Large cloud companies are still aggressively investing in AI data centers. Analysts predict the AI ​​infrastructure market could reach $1.7 trillion by 2030, with NVIDIA remaining the dominant supplier.

The market narrative has shifted from:

* “AI is an exaggeration”

* “AI computing is an essential infrastructure.”

This is a huge difference.

2. Blackwell Demand Looks Incredible

The current surge is primarily driven by the success of the Blackwell architecture.

Analysts and management repeatedly point out that demand exceeds supply. Jensen Huang even suggested there is a visibility approaching $1 trillion in future Blackwell + Rubin revenue streams.

3. Rubin Could Rise Even Further

The next-generation Rubin architecture is expected to launch in late 2026.

Rubin is projected to significantly improve AI inference and training performance, potentially extending NVIDIA's dominance until 2027-2028. May 2026 Price Scenario

Scenario Probability Expected Price
Bear scenario 20% $160–190
Base scenario 50% $260–320
Bull scenario 30% $380–450

My Basic Estimate: $310–340 by May 2026

This represents approximately 35–50% more upside from current levels.

* AI capital expenditures remain extremely strong
* NVIDIA still has a software ecosystem (CUDA advantage)
* Gross profit margins remain at an elite level
* Wall Street continues to push targets above $300

Risks That Could Lead to a Stock Crash

This upside is strong, but the risks are real.

1. Valuation is Overkill

Expectations at these levels are excellent. Any earnings error could trigger a severe correction.

May 20th earnings are now a significant catalyst event.

2. AI Bubble Risk

Some investors are warning of a 30-50% AI stock crash by 2027 if spending slows or earnings expectations aren't met.

3. Increasing Competition

* Custom AI chips from large-scale companies
* AMD acceleration
* Increased pricing power of memory suppliers
* China restrictions/geopolitical situation

All of these could put pressure on margins over time.

Bullish Swing Strategy

* Uptrend continues above $210
* Level likely targeted by momentum investors:

* $250 psychological level
* followed by $300 analyst target zone

This is no longer a "cheap growth stock".

It's trading more like this:

* momentum mega-capitalism
* plus an AI macro proxy
* plus geopolitical assets

Volatility around earnings will increase significantly.

My Personal Opinion

I think NVIDIA is still in the middle of the AI ​​infrastructure cycle, not the end.

But the easy money era is over.

The next phase will likely be:

* explosive rallies,
* sharp corrections of 15-25%,
* followed by a continuation of the rally.

This is typical behavior in long-term technology supercycles.

If AI adoption accelerates globally by 2026, I believe:

NVIDIA could reach a market capitalization of $7-8 trillion.

This roughly means:

$320-$380 per share in the next 12 months

However, if AI spending slows even slightly, this stock could fall by 30% very quickly.

Therefore, my position would be:

* long-term bullish outlook,
* short-term caution,
* volatility expected.