Trump's China visit vs. Hawkish Waller becomes Fed Chair

Bitcoin once dropped below $79,000, is there still hope?

Trump's China visit: 90% chance of signing major deals
Analyzed from macro and practical perspectives

Practical: Trump urgently needs support

CPI too high, oil prices soaring, American people's living costs are suffocating

The "懂王" (King of Understanding)'s approval rating has fallen to a poor level, must rely on economic cooperation to stimulate

Boost the stock market, lift employment, the common people will naturally vote for him

If he loses the midterm elections, he will lose Congress, and policies in the next two years will be directly stalled

He can't afford to lose, and dares not lose; without Congressional support, many things can't be pushed forward

Macro: The world is moving toward unity

The essence of war is dividing wealth, but the form of wealth has changed

Past resources: land, grain, gold, oil, people (fight and take)

Now resources: talent, data, AI, chip design (win but can't take away)

Taking Silicon Valley, engineers run away on the same day; taking OpenAI, model weights are backed up in 30 countries

Moreover, supply chains are deeply integrated; Apple’s large-scale production relies on us, and our rare earths are deeply integrated into the U.S. industrial system
The measure is evident from the huge team he has assembled

Hawkish Waller becomes Fed Chair: the impact is temporary

Market reactions in US stocks and Bitcoin show market reverence for him
He aims to save America, not the stock market or Bitcoin
He has publicly stated multiple times: "It's not about Bitcoin"
Waller's three labels: rate-hike fanatic, Bitcoin critic, dollar loyalist
So, in the face of Trump's China visit, a super positive event, US stocks and Bitcoin are also trembling
But ultimately, the market will become rational, not because of one person completely changing the trend

What to do next

Reassess macro, funds are still sensitive; if something's off, run away

Focus on the May 14 joint statement, two things:

1. Whether chip exports to Eastern countries are open
2. Whether the signing of agricultural products/energy/aircraft meets expectations

I personally think it will far exceed expectations, so continue holding positions

Overperformance makes profits run; meeting expectations means taking profits, underperformance means running quickly