Bear Market Second Half, Are You Truly Prepared?

As someone who has been in this jungle for years, I always think that on-chain data is greatly misunderstood. Behind the data are the actions and emotions of living people, reflecting the complex competition of the entire market. So it’s not just a repetition of history. Understanding the principles of data can significantly improve prediction accuracy amid chaos.

The most important thing in trading is to leave room for failure within yourself. Looking back on this cycle, I built my position around an average of $21,000 from December 2022 to March 2023. Then, on October 6, 2025, I issued a conditional settlement at $121,000 based on the MVRV extreme deviation price band, and I was able to take profits perfectly there.

However, it’s not perfect. After the 1011 incident, I made a mistake in judging whether it was a gradual correction or the end of the bear market. At that time, I was bound by the fixed notion of a four-year cycle, expecting a decline of about 30% at most, but in reality, it dropped even more. I underestimated the destructive power of early profit-taking.

Fortunately, by lowering costs with ladder orders, I was able to leave room for correction within myself.

On January 10, 2026, I caught a critical signal with the comprehensive cost basis model. This is definitive proof that the bear market cycle has begun. At that time, I warned my friends within the group that BTC was likely to rebound around $98,000, and this would be the last chance to escape. Indeed, on January 14, BTC rebounded to $97,000, and the subsequent market developments confirmed the answer.

Now, many people are asking when the next bottom will be. Honestly, no one can predict the absolute bottom accurately. But since the macro trend of the second half of the bear market has become clear, there is a most effective strategy for the majority.

That is to continue investing regularly over the next six months. This way, you won’t miss this valuable opportunity. If executed strictly, by the time the next top is reached, you will have a 99.99% chance of not losing money. The only thing you need to endure is this boring and lengthy process.

Of course, I think many people have limited cash. That’s why I understand the desire to build positions as close to the bottom as possible.

Based on current simulations, I estimate there is about a 10-20% adjustment space from the current level. Building the bottom structure will take approximately 3 to 5 months. During this period, we need to pay close attention to on-chain sentiment, liquidity exhaustion points, whale movements, supply and demand relationships, cost basis, and changes in futures and options funding structures.

I will do my best to find that bottom and help everyone secure a leading position before the next frantic bull market begins. If there are deviations in the simulation, please be a little tolerant. This is not intentional; please trust that I am doing my best.

The harsh winter will come to an end. There is hope at the next peak. No one in this group is missing. For detailed on-chain indicator analysis, please visit the portal.