#Gate广场五月交易分享 #美光科技高位跳水 Micron experienced a remarkable surge in 2026 (over 150% increase within the year), but recently saw a high-level pullback. The core trigger was Google's Research Institute releasing the TurboQuant compression algorithm on March 24. This technology claims to reduce memory usage of large language models by more than six times. The market immediately worried that AI memory demand might be disrupted—MU plummeted over 20% in six trading days from its high, marking the largest consecutive decline since the tariff shock in April 2025. However, it should be noted that TurboQuant is currently only a research paper and has not been put into production, and the compression mainly targets KV caches, not replacing HBM itself. Several analysts believe the market’s panic reaction is an "overreaction."

As of May 12, MU closed in the range of approximately $747–$767, down about 2.5% for the day.

Despite the pullback, the cumulative increase over the past year still exceeds 750%, with a market capitalization surpassing $800 billion.

Future Trends
Bullish Factors:
Tight HBM supply and demand: Micron’s HBM capacity in 2026 is nearly sold out, with supply increasing only about 20% compared to 2025, and the supply-demand gap persists. Piper Sandler pointed out that Micron will adopt "value-based pricing" rather than cost-based pricing for HBM4, with significant profit margins.
AI infrastructure investment continues to accelerate: Major cloud providers like Microsoft, Google, and Meta are expected to spend about $700 billion on AI infrastructure this year, with memory being a core necessity.
Valuations appear attractive: Current NTM P/E ratio is about 8x, and FY26 is about 14x, far below AI concept stocks like Nvidia.
Analyst consensus is generally optimistic: Out of 45 analysts, 38 give buy/overperform ratings. Deutsche Bank and DA Davidson set a target price of $1,000 (the highest on the street), TD Cowen’s target is $660, and UBS’s target is $535.

Bearish Risks:
Lessons from the memory cycle: In May 2018, Micron’s stock fell from a high of $64 to $28 by the end of the year, a 57% decline. The cycle of demand surge → price spike → capacity expansion → oversupply may repeat.
DRAM/NAND price increases too large: In April, DRAM prices jumped 57% compared to Q1 average, NAND increased 65-70%. Bernstein warned that overly high pricing could force OEMs and module suppliers to cut back on procurement, slowing the Q2 price increase pace.
Long-term threat of TurboQuant: Even if temporarily unavailable, once proven capable of large-scale deployment, this technology could pose a fundamental challenge to HBM demand narratives.
TIKR model cautious outlook: The median scenario predicts only a 6.4% total return by 2030, with an annual IRR of less than 1%; if earnings fall short of expectations combined with valuation compression, the low scenario target price is only $241.

Key Observation Points:
Around June 24, Micron will release its FY2026 Q3 earnings report, focusing on whether data center NAND revenue continues to accelerate—if it does, it will directly counter the TurboQuant demand disruption narrative; if it stalls, the credibility of this narrative will quickly rise.

Micron’s recent pullback was mainly driven by fears of technological disruption, but the short-term fundamentals (tight HBM supply, large-scale AI infrastructure investment) remain solid. The medium- to long-term trend depends on whether the memory supercycle can truly break historical patterns and whether TurboQuant-like technologies will materially weaken demand. Current valuations are low, but cyclical risks should not be ignored. The June earnings report will be a key validation window.

The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.