Hexun Information Lu Yan: What is the true certainty in trading?

Recently, the most discussed issue in backend messages is whether there is certainty in trading and how to find that certainty. In this regard, we can clarify the conclusion: there is certainty in trading, but the vast majority of investors have always been looking in the wrong direction. Most people’s understanding of certainty is that after finding a signal and entering the market, they expect the price to inevitably rise; if it doesn’t meet expectations, they deny the validity of the indicator or strategy.

In fact, I also once obsessively searched for so-called “guaranteed rise signals” and “enlightenment strategies,” indulging in indicators, patterns, and various “secrets,” only to eventually realize that this approach is fundamentally self-deception. What everyone is fixated on is predicting market certainty, but such certainty simply does not exist in the market. The core reason is that the market is not a fixed mathematical formula with a single answer: the same pattern or signal can show completely different trends under different market sentiments and cycles — it’s not that the signal fails, but that the market environment is always in dynamic change.

Most people believe they lack better methods or more precise indicators, but in reality, what they truly lack is the mindset to accept market uncertainty. An illustrative metaphor can explain this: by the river, there is a large tree that encounters floods every year during the rainy season. The flood levels vary—sometimes submerging the trunk, sometimes just covering the roots—but it has never been washed away over the years. When asked about its secret, the tree’s answer is profound and clear: “I cannot determine when the flood will come or how big it will be. The only thing I can be sure of is how deep my roots are.”

This is the ultimate truth of trading: the certainty in trading is never about predicting rises or falls, guessing highs or lows, but about one’s own trading rules, position discipline, and mental control — these are the “roots.” With a solid foundation, no matter how volatile the market or how extreme the trends, you won’t be eliminated by the market; if your roots are shallow, even short-term profits can be wiped out by a major fluctuation.

Some may ask, with a set of trading rules, can every trade be profitable? The answer is no. Rules cannot guarantee profit on each individual trade, but they can ensure that, in the long run, the probability of profit favors you. It’s like a farmer planting crops: he cannot be sure whether the year will be smooth or bountiful, but he knows that if he doesn’t plant in spring, he will have no harvest in autumn. The same applies to trading: strictly following rules may not always lead to profit, but operating by feelings or intuition will inevitably lead to losses over time — without exception. This is the hardest core certainty in trading.

Some investors are keen on studying macroeconomics and market trends, believing that understanding the big picture equals certainty. Objectively, the trend direction can be judged, but the timing of entry is always uncertain. It’s like knowing water will flow downhill, but unable to determine when it will start flowing, how fast, or whether it will be blocked by rocks or diverted by the riverbed. Macro analysis can only provide the general direction, but cannot give precise entry points, rhythm control, or risk management plans. That’s why trading rules and systems are needed—to manage all uncertainties related to timing and emotions.

The ultimate path of trading is “live when life is, die when death is.” It sounds profound but is actually simple: learn to accept everything beyond your control — market rises and falls, market sentiment, sector rotations, profit and loss — these are beyond human control, just like a big tree cannot control the weather, floods, or storms. The greatest human pain is obsessing over controlling what cannot be controlled, while neglecting what can be managed: losing control of your hands, mismanaging your positions, failing to stick to rules, or losing your composure.

True insight comes from letting go of attachment to results and focusing on controlling the process: enter the market according to rules when it’s time, exit decisively when it’s time; hold onto profits when the market gives them, take small losses when expectations aren’t met — no hesitation, no resistance, no internal conflict, no illusions. The ultimate certainty in trading can be summarized in one sentence: the outcome cannot be guaranteed, but the process is fully controllable; the market cannot be predicted, but rules can be upheld; rises and falls cannot be certain, but the roots can be deeply anchored.

Finally, I sincerely offer all diligent traders this piece of advice: operate according to rules, even if you suffer losses, your logic remains correct; operate by feelings, even if you profit, the essence is still wrong. If you can control your hands and stick to your rules, you can maintain your mindset — this is the only true certainty in trading.