Recently, I’ve been looking at Bitcoin’s holdings distribution and noticed an interesting phenomenon. Small retail investors are entering the market aggressively, but large holders are actually reducing their positions. This divergence makes the market appear particularly fragile.

According to on-chain data, the number of small wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC has hit a new high this year, rising to the highest point since mid-2024. These small investors are providing significant buying pressure, fueling short-term momentum. But here’s the problem—those who typically control the market (whales and sharks holding 10 to 10,000 BTC) have been selling off since the October peak.

It’s like only the small fish are trying to push the price upward, while the big players are selling in batches during each rebound. Glassnode’s data shows that medium-sized wallets did buy the dip during panic periods, but the largest holders have been continuously selling. This split causes the price to be highly volatile without forming a clear trend. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $81k, looking quite dull.

Retail investors have done their best, and small fish are still trying to participate. But for this rebound to truly succeed, large holders need to stop distributing, or better yet, reverse course. Otherwise, any upward movement could be crushed by these big wallets. That’s why demand solely from small investors cannot sustain a continued rise—structural demand must come from the big players.

Additionally, institutions like MicroStrategy are still buying. Last week, they purchased another 535 BTC at an average price of about $80.3k each, spending over $81k. Overall, small investors are waiting for the big players; what are the big players waiting for?