This time, the US April CPI / PPI market forecast focuses on one point: inflation expectations are on the higher side, and the market is already bracing for “hot data.”



**Release time**

**CPI:** May 12th, Tuesday, 21:30 (China time)
According to the BLS official schedule, the April CPI will be released at 08:30 AM Eastern Time on May 12th.

**PPI:** May 13th, Wednesday, 21:30 (China time)
According to the BLS official schedule, the April PPI will be released at 08:30 AM Eastern Time on May 13th.

**Market forecast**

For **BTC / US stocks**, the CPI month-over-month rate of **+0.6%** is somewhat hot—bearish for risk assets.

**CPI** year-over-year **+3.7%** is relatively high, putting pressure on rate-cut expectations.

**Core CPI** month-over-month **+0.3%**
Barely acceptable—anything above **0.3%** is dangerous.

**Core CPI** year-over-year **+2.7%** is neutral, leaning bearish.

**PPI** year-over-year about **+4.8%** is hot—bearish.

**PPI** month-over-month about **+0.5%** is hot—bearish.

**Current market forecast:** leaning bearish.

But the real market move depends on the actual figures:
If it comes in below expectations, it’s actually bullish; if it comes in above expectations, that’s the real bearish signal.

In terms of trading, don’t chase the first 15 to 30 minutes’ worth of candles right after the data is released. That first candle often turns out to be a “fireworks fake move.” Only the second and third candles are more like the true direction.
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ThereAreCandiesInThePocket.
· 6h ago
What do you think about this market forecast?
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