Oil prices closed with long lower shadows for the second consecutive day, continuing to fluctuate sharply within the day, with a high-low range of $8.
On Thursday during the Asia-Europe session, following WTI, Brent also easily fell below the $100 mark, hitting a new low at one point.
This behavior in crude oil is due to investors betting on the development of the oil market, believing that hopes for a peace agreement between the US and Iran are rising, and that the tight supply situation will ease.
However, this expectation quickly faded after clashes between the US and Iran again occurred in the early hours of Friday.
Although the US emphasized that the military strikes on Iran's Gasham Port and Abadan Port were not a resumption of war or the termination of a ceasefire agreement, the market clearly did not see it that way.
Overall, the news indicates that the US military struck Iranian oil tankers, and then the US Navy missile destroyer, on its way through the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman, was retaliated against by Iran, leading to attacks on multiple Iranian ports.
The US Central Command emphasized that it has no intention of escalating the situation but has deployed and is ready at any time to protect American forces.
According to reports, Iran's Supreme Joint Military Command stated that the US, with the cooperation of some regional countries, carried out airstrikes on civilian areas.
Iran will respond strongly to any attack without hesitation.
A spokesperson for Iran's Hatem Abiyah Central Command issued a statement saying that US forces violated the ceasefire.
Some Iranian media reports suggest that the UAE may be involved in the explosion on Gasham Island.
There are signs that the UAE has taken hostile actions at the port of Bakhman on Gasham Island, "If this is true, the UAE will pay the price for its hostile actions."
Previously, the market widely expected Iran to submit a response to the mediator on Thursday regarding the US's proposal to end the war, but as of early this morning, Iran had not made an official response.
Only some Iranian officials stated that no uranium had been transferred out of Iran, and Iran would not allow the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz based on an "unrealistic plan" and then withdraw from the war "without paying any compensation for all damages caused to Iran."
For negotiations between Iran and the US to yield satisfactory results, they must include "substantive interests," not the kind of "superficial posturing" the US attempts to offer.
Even if the US withdraws from the region, Iran will still demand its rights and war reparations.
"We have endured them for 47 years and will continue to resist."
Additionally, Iran is strengthening control over the Strait of Hormuz, introducing new regulations requiring ships to declare their passage to the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" before transit.
Iranian Parliament National Security Committee Chairman Aziz posted on social media that repeating past mistakes will lead to a stronger response, and urged respect for Iran's new maritime jurisdiction system.
All these statements from Iran indicate that reaching an agreement in the current situation remains very difficult, far from the optimism expressed by Trump on Wednesday about reaching a framework agreement with Iran, and both sides, especially the US, need to make significant compromises.
Yesterday, Trump believed that a framework agreement could be reached within a week, coinciding with his upcoming trip to the East in a week.
Now, with the resurgence of US-Iran military conflict, the situation is extremely complicated.
The rebound of over $8 from the intraday low in oil prices already says everything; major setbacks in US-Iran talks, and attacks on Iran make it even harder for Iran's military, which already distrusts the US, to cooperate in negotiations.
The efforts to reach an agreement, which were closest to success, may once again fall through, increasing geopolitical risks and making the oil market more uncertain.
The high-volatility range in oil prices will continue, and risk management should be strengthened.

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