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On May 7th, Bitcoin's current rebound from around 60k to 83k, nearly 40%, is a technical correction within a bear market, not a trend reversal; the current range of 82.5k to 84k is close to the top, and subsequent movements are likely to oscillate downward and break previous lows, only truly reversing after the final dip of the bear market. The following detailed analysis covers four aspects: core logic, technical basis, historical analogy, and trading suggestions:
1. Core judgment: Bear market rebound, not the start of a bull market
1. The long-term stance remains unchanged: Although this rebound is strong (60k → 83k, nearly 40% increase), it is defined as a healthy technical correction within a bear market, not the beginning of a main upward wave.
2. Lack of major volume surge signals: The market is gradually rising with consolidation, without short-term large bullish candles or obvious continuous inflow of major funds, which does not meet the characteristics of a main upward wave.
3. Market sentiment features: Short squeeze and shakeout: Typical of a bear market clearing out the short positions—consolidation upward, continuously reaching new highs, forcing short sellers to stop-loss, causing long-short swings, ultimately inducing more buyers and turning into a bull, consistent with the cyclical sentiment pattern at the end of a bear market.