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#Polymarket每日热点
Sharing my operation on Polymarket for the 2026 World Cup champion. This time I directly bought the No contract for Spain, betting against their winning the championship.
Currently, the market assigns a 15% probability to Spain winning, ranking second, but I don’t think they will make it to the end. Spain’s possession-based style of play is indeed stable in major tournaments, but this style is also very vulnerable to high-intensity physical confrontations and targeted counterattacks. Facing teams like France and England, which have strong physicality and impact, they can be easily overwhelmed. Moreover, Spain’s resilience in major tournaments has never been top-tier, and their ability to break through in critical moments still lags behind top-tier teams.
This time, I chose to buy the Spain No contract at a price of 84 cents, effectively betting against their winning the championship. Although market enthusiasm is high, I think Spain’s upside is overestimated. In a big tournament like the World Cup, relying solely on system play and young players is not enough. Experience in major tournaments and star players’ ability in critical moments are still lacking for Spain.