Short at 9 o'clock. BTC currently (around $79,800) has broken below the 80k integer level, and on the 4-hour chart, it has already fallen through the short-term moving averages, shifting from strong to weak, with further correction pressure possible.

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Fundamentals and Macro

Tonight is the release window for the U.S. April non-farm payroll data, which is the last key employment report before Powell steps down, directly setting expectations for the Federal Reserve's June policy. Economists forecast only 62k new jobs, but the average hourly wage growth is expected to rise from 3.5% to 3.8% year-over-year—sticky wage inflation may suppress rate cut expectations, creating a bearish environment for risk assets. Additionally, the initial jobless claims data for early May (200k) has reinforced the "higher for longer" interest rate stance, and Fed officials have not ruled out the possibility of rate hikes, adding to the risk of a bullish breakout. ETF inflows are still ongoing but are not enough to drive a short-term breakout.

Technical Signal

· Current price: $79,800, down about 1.9% in 24 hours, intraday low of $79,500, high of $81,700
· Support and Resistance: Short-term first resistance at $81,500-$82,000, strong resistance above $82,500; short-term support at $79,500-$80,000, strong support at $77,500-$78,000
· Bull-Bear Threshold: If it falls below $77,500, the daily bullish structure will be broken, further opening the downside space to the $75,000 region

Key Variable: One hour after the non-farm data release is an extreme volatility period, prone to both long and short traps. The true trend needs to wait until liquidation ends for confirmation. If the data, due to wage growth exceeding expectations, reinforces a hawkish stance, BTC will continue to decline, with focus on breaking the $77,500 level.

Trading Suggestion: Short in the $81,500-$82,000 zone under pressure, targeting $79,500-$78,500, with a stop-loss above $82,500; if it breaks below $77,500, immediately stop loss and do not reverse to long.

⚠️ The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset volatility is high; please conduct your own research and set strict risk controls.