#美伊冲突再升级

Currently, the possibility of a complete loss of control over the situation remains limited. Trump downplayed this attack as trivial and claimed that the U.S. military's retaliation was just a love tap. This statement sent a signal that the White House does not want the成果 of negotiations to be lost. Iran is currently reviewing that 14-point peace memorandum. The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz seems more like a bargaining chip outside the negotiation table, aimed at increasing leverage. Caution is needed regarding Iran's subsequent retaliation for the interception of the Ocean Koi oil tanker, as well as the actual duration of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. If this route remains non-navigable, oil prices above $100 will become the norm, which will directly lock in the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts.

The non-farm payroll data released tonight will determine the tone of this week’s closing. Market consensus expects about 62k to 65k new jobs, a significant drop from last month’s 178k. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%. Currently, the Federal Reserve is in standby mode, and some institutions even predict that they may have to maintain high interest rates in the second half of the year. If non-farm payrolls do not show enough weakness, the market’s patience for rate cuts will be exhausted.

Tonight is a race between bullets and data. Geopolitical conflicts determine the lower limit of assets, while employment data determines the upper limit of the rebound. The first wave of volatility after the non-farm payroll release is often deceptive; it is recommended to observe the market direction half an hour after the data is released. If BTC can recover to $79k amid high oil prices, it indicates that the bulls still have confidence. Conversely, if it falls below $77k, a phased deep correction should be anticipated.