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The Middle East is at war, why is the crypto world the most panicked?
Many new retail investors experienced for the first time last night:
It turns out that a shot fired in the Middle East can really cause BTC to lose a layer of skin.
After the U.S. military confirmed a military counterattack in the Strait of Hormuz, global funds instantly switched modes. Risk assets were sold off, safe-haven assets were franticly bought.
And BTC, neither purely a safe haven nor purely growth, is therefore in the most awkward position.
When prices rise, everyone calls it "digital gold,"
When prices fall, everyone treats it like tech stocks.
Currently, the market's biggest fear is oil prices spiraling out of control.
Because as long as crude oil continues to rise, U.S. inflation will be hard to bring down.
If inflation can't be tamed, the Federal Reserve won't dare to cut interest rates.
The biggest bullish logic for BTC over the past year has actually been:
"Liquidity will loosen again in the future."
Now, this logic is beginning to be challenged.
Tonight’s non-farm payroll data is even more important than the Middle East news itself.
If employment data is weak, the market will think rate cuts are still possible, and BTC might quickly recover lost ground.
But if the data is too strong, the market will start to reprice:
"Not cutting rates and even maintaining a hawkish stance."
By then, not only BTC, but even the U.S. stock AI sector could see a correction.
So tonight, it’s not really about "watching non-farm," but about whether Powell can continue to play the dove. #美伊冲突再升级