Trump's "Freedom Plan" just hit the accelerator, then was abruptly slammed by the Middle East! BTC bulls: I've already put on my pants.

During the May Day holiday, the global markets were still immersed in the joy of a "big rebound in risk assets." The core logic of Trump's high-profile "Freedom Plan" is simple: suppress energy, stabilize the dollar, and win votes. The market immediately understood—oil prices fell, inflation eased, expectations of rate cuts increased, and Bitcoin shot up to $80k as if injected with adrenaline.
Who knew, the Middle East suddenly didn't play fair.
After the Fuchairah oil tank was attacked, Brent crude surged to $114 overnight. When Wall Street traders opened their screens in the early morning, they almost thought their computers had switched back to 2022. BTC instantly transformed from "digital gold" into "high-volatility scare coin."
Now, the most critical question in the market is: "How long can the 'Freedom Plan' last?"
In plain terms, the biggest fear of this plan is oil prices spiraling out of control. Because once oil prices stay above $110, US inflation will heat up again like reheated pork. The Fed's original plan of small rate cuts might have to be put back in the drawer.
And Trump is now in a very awkward position.
Continuing to suppress oil prices? Requires Iran's cooperation.
Continuing sanctions on Iran? Oil prices will keep soaring.
So, the Oman negotiations suddenly become the global asset pricing center. Everyone is now watching one question: Will Iran loosen its stance on uranium enrichment?
If they do, the market will interpret it as:
"Middle East risk decreases → crude oil falls → Fed has room to cut rates again → risk assets continue to party."
But if negotiations break down, the story gets intense.
Oil prices keep rising, US Treasury yields soar, tech stocks kneel first, Bitcoin follows up. At that point, the market will re-enter a risk-averse mode of "cash is king."
But there's a particularly interesting phenomenon right now:
Although Bitcoin has pulled back, it hasn't crashed outright like before. This shows institutions are starting to treat BTC as a strange asset—"semi-risk, semi-safe haven."
When rising, it’s like Nasdaq.
When chaotic, like gold.
When crashing, like altcoins.
It’s a very complex mental state.
My trading strategy is actually very simple:
First, don’t chase high oil prices.
War sentiment is the easiest to create a peak rally.
Second, don’t blindly short BTC.
Because as long as the market re-trades the "rate cut expectations," funds will come back.
Third, focus on the Oman negotiation window.
In the next two weeks, it’s very likely to determine the entire summer rally.
Right now, the market isn’t about bull or bear, but:
"How many hours does the Middle East want traders to sleep?"#比特币站稳8万关口