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The reasoning directions of the two big V's above are both correct!
Next, it is indeed "the big one is coming"
However, when it comes to the necessary conditions for achieving the goal,
we must mention the ancient term "black swan"!
What is a black swan event?
A black swan event refers to a rare and unpredictable event,
used to describe those that are beyond conventional expectations and usually have serious consequences.
These events often have an extremely low probability of occurrence
and the ability to overturn established rules,
forcing market participants to reassess risks and assumptions.
Historical black swan events include:
The 2008-2009 financial crisis
The collapse of the US housing market triggered a global recession
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020
Severely impacted the global economy and caused intense market volatility
All of these constantly remind us
that market stability is often more fragile than it appears on the surface.
What kind of black swan will happen next?
Let's boldly speculate!
#BlackSwan