The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is as high as 95.2%! The remaining chance of a rate cut is almost as unlikely as winning the lottery.


The "dove turning into an eagle" script: June is basically a no-go: a 95.2% chance shows that the Federal Reserve is now as steady as a Buddha statue, not moving at all.
Continuing to pretend to be clueless in July: by July, the probability of maintaining the status quo is still 92.2%. That small spark of a rate cut is almost extinguished before it even ignites.
Still uncertain in September: even by September, there's an 86.1% chance of staying put.
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