The classic plot twist is back!

From the "missile suspicion" to the "U.S. military pretending to be dead," oil prices have been played twice.
Act One: Loud Thunder
Trump wants to create momentum by sailing ships flying the American flag through the strait, Iran directly announces: U.S. ships entering the strait, warned by missiles.
The U.S. side insists they didn't hit anything; although there's no concrete evidence yet, U.S. ships probing, and both sides confronting each other is a fact. The key is whether they were hit and how much damage was done, which will determine whether a real war will follow.

Act Two: Small Raindrops
The market was originally waiting for Trump to make tough statements and escalate military actions, betting on a sharp rise in oil prices.
As a result, Iran claimed to have hit the target, and the U.S. remained silent throughout without retaliating, causing the conflict to cool down directly, and the bullish logic for crude oil speculation completely failed.

Act Three: Short Squeeze
The speculation on crude oil isn't about whether it was hit or not, but whether the situation will spiral out of control.
This time, the U.S. ships retreated at the slightest disturbance, both sides tacitly controlled the situation, and oil transportation through the strait was unaffected. The previous rise was purely emotional speculation; once emotions fade, prices will inevitably fall back.

Conclusion:
Don’t be blinded by the gunfire on Twitter; geopolitical tensions are fewer and fewer. Next, it’s time for the bears to sit back and count their money.

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