Tonight I was watching the chain again, saw a few large addresses moving positions back and forth, and the group started shouting "Follow this whale."

I'm starting to be a bit suspicious of this setup...
Many times what you see is whether they are building a position or hedging, arbitraging, and it's not always clear.
Especially when they are entering and exiting in batches, opening and closing contracts at the same time, honestly, they might just be spreading the risk, and if we follow in, we become the other side of their trade.

Recently, new L1/L2s are offering incentives to attract TVL, and old users complain about "mining, dumping, and selling," which I can understand:
Funds look lively, but many wallets just harvest and leave, leaving behind a bunch of emotions and slippage.
Anyway, my current approach is to first see if the same address continues to add more, or if they are moving coins out for long-term storage.
If unsure, I test with small positions—better to miss out than get caught in a roller coaster with a hedge wave.
That's how I do it for now.