Here, Lin Ran wishes everyone a Happy May Day holiday. Recently, I’ve been busy with small, trivial matters, so I wasn’t able to update the post in a timely manner. May Day happened to fall on the weekend, and the dog庄’s trading/manipulation tricks are especially vicious. Throughout the entire process, they deliberately suppress the bearish market moves, and slowly lift the trend to keep wearing down the bears’ patience. The direction on the chart is blurry, and most people get stuck in making choices and feel lost.

To put it plainly, my personal view is that this round of market movement is nothing more than the big biscuit (BTC) alone surging upward, while the second biscuit (ETH) and all kinds of altcoins have grown only modestly throughout. This is enough to show that the bear market structure has not been broken. Make sure you don’t blindly insist that the bull market is returning.

During May Day, market circulating liquidity dropped to a low point, and market sentiment is extremely low and gloomy. This is already a rare weak-market situation. Many people are looking favorably at the market, expecting a push to 80,000, 82,000, or even 85,000. Rational analysis suggests that if the bullish forces were sufficient, the market would have already surged rapidly and broken through.

At this stage, the upward move crawling higher slowly is only meant to deliberately create the illusion that the bulls are strong—luring retail traders to chase longs and get on board. Once the bulls enter in bulk, the trader’s sickle can turn around and harvest at any time.

The 4-hour and daily charts have both already formed a top divergence structure in sync. Risk signals are at maximum—be sure to be cautious. The daily and weekly trading volumes continue to shrink to an extreme level. Any upward move with no volume is nothing but a stop-and-fake bull trap rebound, and it is absolutely not a real bullish reversal.

A snow collapse is coming—nothing in the world will escape. Right now, the market has reached a critical turning point. It all depends on the dog庄’s subsequent trading moves. At present, I always remain firmly on the side of the air force, and I continue to look at shorting and staying bearish on higher prices (higher ranges).

Trading suggestion: Short near 79,000–80,000, looking down toward 77,600–77,000. If it breaks below 76,000 and 74,500, then the long-term level is 68,000.
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