[Macro Earth] Risk Radar Update — Look at the world before the chart

BTC is still behaving more like a neutral / range market than a clean breakout chase. BTCUSDT is trading around the high-$78K area, with the recent 24H range still the first zone to watch. Current risk level: Medium.

What I am tracking today:
• Regulation: Brazil's central bank restrictions on stablecoin and crypto settlement for cross-border payments may affect the liquidity-rails narrative.
• Policy: The CLARITY Act and yield-related compromises remain important for institutional crypto sentiment.
• Security: A major DeFi exploit and warnings around the Bitcoin eCash fork remind us that infrastructure risk still matters.
• Sentiment: Prediction markets continue to grow as alternative data for reading crowd expectations.

Watchlist:
1) Whether BTC holds or loses the recent 24H high-low range
2) DXY and U.S. yields
3) ETF flows and regulatory headlines
4) Geopolitical risk and oil-price shocks

The Macro Ledger framework: look at the world before the chart. Macro risk first, technical confirmation second.

Not financial advice. Educational and risk-awareness content only. No guaranteed profit.

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