$BTC ‌Powell flicks his sleeve and sweeps away all the longs’ confidence

Powell’s final time striking the hammer—rates didn’t move, but the platter moved first. Bitcoin keeps bouncing between 78,000 and 80,000, like a middle-aged person hesitating in front of an automatic door: when it opens, you don’t dare go in; when it closes, you suddenly want to go in again.

Crouching at the 80,000 mark are 2.1 billion USD worth of shorts—like a thick layer of chive-box pastry skin. Everyone wants a bite, and everyone ends up burning their mouth. The options market’s script is: breakthrough 84,000 by late month, with a probability of 25%. Put into plain human language—don’t rush.

Over at the Senate, the CLARITY bill finally stopped pretending to be dead, and Polymarket’s approval probability has surged to 55%. As for Bitcoin being reclassified under “commodities,” whether that’s good news or bad news can be set aside—anyway, the dog-whales have already laid the groundwork. Strategy is holding 810,000 “big pancakes,” with a cost of 75,000. It’s about to release its quarterly report, and everyone is waiting to see whether Saylor keeps going all-in or just stands there reciting sermons.

Oil prices fell, and Iran reached talks and moved toward peace—risk assets finally exhaled in relief. But retail investors are already gone—Dragonfly says it’s now big institutions down below acting as the bagholders. The Fear & Greed Index is 26, and market sentiment is cold, like an ex’s heart. #美国寻求战略比特币储备