CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's April rally was mainly driven by "speculation," with a risk of pullback

BlockBeats News, May 3, CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno wrote in a report: “The demand for perpetual futures contracts is the only driving force behind Bitcoin’s price rise in April, while apparent spot demand continues to contract. This structure has historically tended to appear in bear markets, and it is often difficult to sustain an uptrend.”

Moreno said that this divergence—perpetual futures demand rising while spot demand shrinks—is one of the clearest signals on-chain, indicating that this rally is more driven by speculation than by structural growth. He pointed out that this means the price increase is mainly driven by leverage rather than new inflows of Bitcoin capital.

Moreno also said, “From a historical perspective, this kind of structure lacks the foundation to support sustained price increases. Once futures positions begin to unwind, it usually corrects through a price pullback.”
CryptoQuant said that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures is similar to the situation at the beginning of the 2022 bear market. While this does not necessarily mean the same outcome will occur this time, the current structure does carry “significant downside risk.”