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OPEC+ to Increase June Production Quota by Approximately 188,000 Barrels/Day Amidst Oil Price Surge Expectations
On May 2, sources revealed that despite the UAE’s withdrawal, seven countries within OPEC+ have reached a preliminary agreement to increase oil production targets by approximately 188,000 barrels per day in June. This increase is similar to last month’s target of 206,000 barrels per day, excluding the UAE’s share. This decision indicates that OPEC+ is continuing its usual approach to decision-making. The seven OPEC+ member countries plan to hold an online meeting on Sunday. Currently, disruptions caused by the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran have significantly affected shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing more interference for OPEC oil-producing countries than the organization’s agreed production targets. Therefore, the current production increase is largely symbolic. The UAE unexpectedly announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1. According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of WTI crude oil closing at $110 this month is 75%, at $120 is 45%, and at $130 is 22%, indicating that the market still expects a significant rise in oil prices.