Official Entry: Hyperliquid Launches First HIP-4 Binary Prediction Market Contract, Directly Competing with Leaders Polymarket and Kalshi

On May 2, according to Hyperliquid’s official page, it has launched its first HIP-4 binary prediction market contract “BTC above 78213 on May 3 at 2:00 PM?” (Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,213 at 2:00 PM on May 3?). According to the official HIP-4 proposal, the Outcomes (result contracts) adopt a full collateralization mechanism, fundamentally eliminating the risk of liquidation; its nonlinear settlement method provides users with flexibility similar to options, expanding the strategy space; meanwhile, it is natively integrated into the HyperCore chain, sharing full-margin collateral with the platform’s spot and perpetual contracts, achieving seamless liquidity interchange and reuse. In the current landscape where Polymarket dominates on-chain traffic and Kalshi collaborates with Coinbase to aggregate compliant markets, Hyperliquid’s entry into the prediction market is not merely a case of “following the trend,” but rather aims to redefine the rules of the prediction market game by leveraging its underlying performance advantages, directly targeting leading prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Among prediction market players, Polymarket’s sale of “opinions” has become a social barometer; Kalshi attracts domestic U.S. funds seeking to avoid legal risks through its “compliance”; Coinbase aims to simplify access by turning prediction markets into consumer products through built-in app features; Hyperliquid’s prediction market logic is the most hardcore, as it does not require users to click Yes or No on a webpage, but instead seeks to change user trading habits by allowing them to short BTC while simultaneously purchasing an Outcomes contract for “non-farm data exceeding expectations” to hedge macro risks.