FOMC does not cut interest rates, Powell steps back but does not retire—BTC 75k defense battle

1. Interest rates remain unchanged, but the divergence sets a 34-year record

Early morning Beijing time on April 30, the Federal Reserve announced the decision of the April FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate remained at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive pause.

This fully aligns with market expectations. What truly surprised the market was the voting results.

Out of 12 voting members, surprisingly 4 voted against the decision. This is the highest number of dissenters at a Federal Reserve meeting since 1992[1].

How did they oppose? In two groups.

One group was Governor Miran, who has been calling for rate cuts since joining the Fed in September last year. He continued to advocate for a 25 basis point cut this time.

The other group consisted of three regional Fed presidents—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan. They supported holding rates steady but opposed keeping the accommodative language in the statement. The so-called dovish language is that old phrase used for two years: if risks emerge, the committee will be prepared to adjust monetary policy accordingly. These three believe that this phrase implies a higher likelihood of rate cuts than hikes, and now is not the time to retain that signal[1].

In simple terms: some are pushing for rate cuts, others want to remove the rate cut option from the table.

Their attitudes are completely opposite, but both are opposed.

This is the current situation of the Federal Reserve. Being pulled in opposite directions by two forces, it’s a dilemma.

Looking at the wording changes in the statement, the Fed shifted its description of inflation from “slightly above target” to “still elevated,” explicitly citing recent global energy price increases as a source. The development of the Middle East situation was officially listed as a source of high uncertainty for the economic outlook[2].

Powell said at the press conference a blunt truth: both dual mandates carry risks. Neither can be said to be fully under control—neither can be ignored. Both sides’ risks must be monitored, and policy can only stay put[1].

2. After the sharp decline, who is buying?

Hyblock CEO Shubh Varma observed a key data point—the global buy-sell order ratio surged to 0.3 after the FOMC, one of the highest levels this year. Meanwhile, open interest in futures contracts decreased during the decline, and funding rates remained neutral[2].

His conclusion: this is classic post-FOMC position adjustment and stop-loss hunting behavior, not a conviction-based sell-off. BTC quickly recouped its losses within hours, indicating buying support below still exists[2].

On-chain data from Glassnode also confirms this from another perspective. Traders increased their bearish leverage before the FOMC, but the divergence between spot and futures market trading volume suggests that leveraged shorts are increasing, yet spot holders are not panicking and selling off[3].

However, Glassnode also pointed out that BTC is currently trapped below the market mean. The 65k-70k range forms a solid bottom support zone, but weak demand prevents a sustainable rebound[3].

In simple terms: some want to push it down, but can’t; some want to lift it up, but can’t. BTC is oscillating near 75k, waiting for the next catalyst.

3. Powell steps back but doesn’t rest—first time since 1948

More interesting than the FOMC itself is what Jerome Powell said at his final chairmanship press conference:

“After my term ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a director for a while. I plan to stay low-profile.”

What does this mean? Powell’s 14-year directorship will not end until January 2028. He chose to remain on the board after stepping down as Chair, a move unprecedented since 1948[4].

Historically, almost all former Fed chairs resigned from the board upon leaving office. Powell broke this 78-year tradition.

Why?

The answer lies in the DOJ investigation. The U.S. Department of Justice previously launched a criminal probe into the Fed’s headquarters renovation project—Powell himself proactively submitted this matter to the Fed Inspector General. The criminal investigation was just closed on April 24. Powell explicitly stated: until the investigation is fully and thoroughly concluded, I will not leave the Board[4].

This is a stance. He is safeguarding the independence of the Fed.

Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh was approved by the Senate Banking Committee on April 29 with a 13-11 vote[1], and is expected to be confirmed by the full Senate around May 11, officially becoming the next Fed Chair.

This means that from mid-May, the Fed will see a rare pattern: new Chair Warsh making decisions, while the former Chair Powell remains on the board as a regular director.

4. Will the new chair’s curse repeat?

Crypto analyst CRYPTOWZRD reminded us of a historical pattern: every time a new Fed chair takes office, Bitcoin usually retraces for several months[6].

What happened when Powell was reappointed in 2022? In May 2022, the Fed began a rate hike cycle, and BTC fell from about 40k to 16k by year-end. And in 2018, Powell’s first appointment? BTC dropped from 17k to around 3k.

Of course, history doesn’t repeat exactly. The context when Warsh takes over is different—interest rates are already at 3.5%-3.75%, and the market broadly expects rate cuts in the second half of the year. But the pace and timing remain uncertain.

Warsh was approved by the Senate Banking Committee with a 13-11 vote[1], indicating policy disagreements. The market will closely watch his first statements—whether he continues Powell’s cautious approach or signals more dovish or hawkish stances.

Willy Woo’s recent outlook on BTC suggests: it needs to close above 79k (the recent average cost basis for investors) to confirm a rebound trend. His estimated probability—only 30%[5].

5. The significance of 75k

From a technical perspective, the 75k level carries multiple implications:

• It aligns with the 20-day EMA and 20-day SMA

• It is the level where bears attempted to break below after the FOMC but failed to hold

• It marks the shift from “sell the news” to re-evaluation

If BTC can hold above 75k and gradually recover the 76.5k-77k zone, the recent rebound trend may continue. If it falls again and tests 70k or even 65k, it indicates the market needs more time to digest the policy uncertainty at the start of Warsh’s tenure.

Glassnode’s bottom support zone is 65k-70k, based on on-chain cost basis models—most short-term holders’ costs are concentrated in this range[3].

6. Conclusion

Every Fed leadership change brings a period of market adjustment.

Powell steps back, Warsh is about to take over. One is a first since 1948, the other passes with a 13-11 contested vote. These signals together suggest one thing: the monetary policy path in the coming months may not be as smooth as the market expects.

For Bitcoin, 75k is both a technical and psychological threshold. It’s a support test in the short term and a litmus test for whether the new chair’s curse can be broken.

The market won’t stay ambiguous forever. Catalysts often hide in the unnoticed moments.