Polymarket Trading Volume Soars During US-Iran Conflict, Exceeding $100 Million in Four Days

On April 23, Fortune reported that trading volume on the prediction market platform surged amid heightened uncertainty following Trump’s statements on Iran war policies on social media. Dune data shows that from April 5 (Sunday) to April 8 (Wednesday, the day after Trump announced a ceasefire), transactions related to the Iran war reached 413 million, with amounts exceeding $100 million. The report noted that on April 8, a Polymarket event regarding ‘whether Trump might send troops to Iran’ generated nearly 100,000 transactions, becoming the highest trading day of the year up to that point. Following Trump’s post on April 5 on Truth Social demanding Iran to ‘open the damn Strait,’ trading volume on the possibility of an invasion surged; on April 7, after his post hinted that ‘tonight will see the end of an entire civilization,’ the topic of ‘whether a ceasefire will occur’ became the highest traded event. Dune’s report referred to Trump as an ‘unpredictable machine’ and marveled at how his ‘Twitter governance’ style has driven up trading volumes. The prediction market has faced bipartisan criticism for allegedly fostering insider trading, but Trump appears to be very supportive, adopting a lax regulatory approach and aiding the industry’s expansion. Reports indicate that Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., holds shares in Polymarket and serves as an advisor to Kalshi. Polymarket is currently valued at $9.6 billion, nearly ten times the valuation during the latest investment round by the venture capital fund associated with Trump Jr. The Trump Organization is also establishing its own prediction market platform, Truth Predict. Trump Jr.'s spokesperson, Andrew Surabian, responded to related concerns by stating, ‘Don’s involvement as an investor or advisor in any company does not engage with the federal government and has no impact or participation in government policies regarding prediction markets.’ Polymarket did not respond to media requests for comment. Additionally, the probability of ‘Trump being impeached before the end of his term’ on Polymarket has risen from 13% at the beginning of the year to 66% as of this Tuesday.