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Just caught that Mosaic had a rough Q4 - came in with a loss of $1.64 per share when the consensus was expecting 48 cents adjusted. Pretty big miss on the earnings side. Net sales hit $2.97B but fell short of the $3.2B estimate, so volumes were definitely weak across the board.
Looking at the segments, potash did okay price-wise (MOP up to $264/ton from $199), but sales volume stayed flat at 2.2M tons when they needed 2.6M. Phosphate was softer - only 1.3M tons sold versus 1.9M expected, even though DAP prices climbed. The Fertilizantes division also underperformed on volume, hitting just 2.1M tons against a 3.2M estimate.
Cash position tightened a bit too - they're sitting on $276.6M in cash but debt jumped 28% year-over-year to $4.25B. For Q1 2026, they're guiding potash volumes at 2-2.2M tons with MOP prices expected around $255-$275/ton. Phosphate forecast is 1.7-1.9M tons. Full-year 2026 production targets are 9M tons potash and 7M+ tons phosphate.
MOS is rated Hold right now, up 10.2% over the past year but lagging the fertilizer industry's 19.7% gain. Seems like demand headwinds are real for the sector.