According to Polymarket, the probability that Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, will resign as a Federal Reserve Board member before May 30 has fallen to 9% within 24 hours. On April 30, the probability of Powell resigning as a Federal Reserve Board member before May 30 dropped sharply to 9%, a 25% decline within 24 hours. His chance of leaving office before December 31 fell to 66%, down 11% over the same period. This morning, Powell said that after stepping down as Chair, he will continue to serve as a Federal Reserve Board member “for a period of time”; meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that such a move would be “unusual,” and would be inconsistent with Powell’s stated commitment to institutional norms.#美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧

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