Lately, I’ve been seeing a bunch of people take “stablecoin supply is up” and “ETF net inflows are coming in,” and then directly conclude “we’re about to take off.” To be honest, I’m a bit on guard: correlation is good at fooling people, and causation is often just the story you most want. Even if there are more stablecoins, it could mean everyone is first loading bullets into the chamber—only to keep holding off on pulling the trigger. And the money flowing into ETFs might just be switching channels and sitting there, not necessarily moving immediately into altcoins, let alone the handful of junk tickets you and I are holding.

The same goes for the “new L1/L2” kind of drama where they dangle incentives to boost TVL. Once the heat rises, people start “mining, selling,” and it’s not without reason that long-time users complain. Anyway, what I care about more right now is the emotional turning point: when everyone treats data like it’s gospel, I just assume I’m about to get educated once… but my hand moves fast, sigh. What about you?