Just checked the coffee futures close on Friday and it's looking mixed. Arabica barely budged up +0.30 while robusta dropped -29, so we're basically consolidating after getting hammered the past few weeks. The dollar weakness gave some traders a reason to cover shorts, but that's about it for the upside.

The real story here is supply pressure from everywhere. Brazil's looking at record production next year, Vietnam's pumping out robusta like crazy with January exports up 38% y/y, and we're getting decent rain in the growing regions. ICE inventories have bounced back too, which isn't helping prices. Colombia's production is down though, which is one of the few bright spots.

What's interesting is the tension between the forecasts - USDA sees global production hitting a new record at 178.8 million bags but ending stocks falling. So we've got plenty of coffee coming but also strong demand. Feels like we're stuck in this range until something shifts, either on the supply side or if the dollar moves again. Worth watching how Brazilian exports track over the next few weeks.