$BTC

⚠️ Risk Reminder: The following content is for technical discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is extremely volatile. Tonight it is greatly affected by the Federal Reserve’s decision, so the risk is very high. Strictly control your position size and set stop-losses.

🌙 April 29 Bitcoin evening outlook (BTC ~$77,300)

Key takeaway: Consolidation in a high range, slightly bearish correction, and waiting for the early-morning Federal Reserve decision

1. Current situation (4H/Daily)

- Price: Around $77,300, oscillating in a high-range box of 75,000–79,000
- Daily: Two consecutive red-to-green down days, breaking below MA14, MACD forms a death cross, red bars turn green → Short-term bulls lack strength and lean toward adjustment
- 4-hour: Breaks below moving averages, Bollinger mid-band resistance, MACD bearish volume expansion → Weakness in the short term
- Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index 29 (Fear)
- Major event: 2:00 AM Federal Reserve FOMC decision + Powell’s speech → In the evening, a high probability of narrow-range consolidation, waiting for the decision

2. Key evening ranges

- Resistance above — First resistance: 77,800–78,000 (intraday high, dense trading)
- Strong resistance: 78,500–79,400 (prior highs, trapped zone)
- Support below — First support: 76,000–75,500 (key tonight)
- Strong support: 75,000 (long liquidation level of $1.8 billion)
- Extreme levels: 74,700, 72,000

3. Evening trading ideas (more conservative)

Strategy: Sell high and buy low within the range, use a light position, small stop-losses, and move in and out quickly

1. Go long on pullbacks (buy-the-dip) — Entry: 75,500–76,000 zone
- Stop-loss: below 75,000
- Targets: 77,600 → 78,000
2. Go short on rebounds — Entry: 77,800–78,000 zone
- Stop-loss: above 78,700
- Targets: 76,500 → 76,000 → 75,500
3. Risk-control bottom line (must see) — Don’t take a heavy position at night, and don’t chase trades
- Reduce exposure/close positions before and after the early-morning decision, avoid betting on news
- If it breaks below 75,000 → switch to a short-bias, looking toward 72,000
- If it breaks above 79,400 → it may trigger a short squeeze; follow the move accordingly
#以太坊基金会解质押约4890万美元ETH